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Pictured: Jazz Chisholm Jr. Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images

Yankees vs. Phillies odds, picks, predictions for Wed. 7/31: ML bet to make

Originally posted on Action Network | By D.J. James | Last updated Jul 31, 2024 10:33 AM ET

Both the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies filled some needs this week prior to the trade deadline. The Yankees added Mark Leiter Jr. and Jazz Chisholm Jr., while the Phillies received Austin Hays and Carlos Estévez.

Since this game is a potential World Series matchup, fans will finally get a look at how these rosters will appear at year’s end. Nestor Cortes will start for the Yankees and although he's given up hard contact on flyballs, he can hold the Phillies in check.

The Phillies will start Cristopher Sanchez, who is a bit better than Cortes and can keep the ball on the ground while limiting hard contact.

Both of these teams can crush the ball, but the Yankees have been better in relief and hold value on the moneyline, So, let's dive into my Yankees vs. Phillies pick and prediction.

Yankees vs. Phillies Odds, Pick

Wednesday, July 31, 12:35 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Yankees Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
+114	9.5 -102/-118	+1.5 -180

Phillies Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-135	9.5 -102/-118	-1.5 +150

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

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New York Yankees

Cortes maintains a 3.65 xERA against a 4.13 ERA. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate haven't been strong (both rank in the bottom 20% of the league), but he barely walks anyone, which will help against the Phillies. Cortes hasn't gone more than five innings in three straight starts, but the Yankees have a strong bullpen.

The Yankees have also hammered lefties. In July, the Yankees have a 109 wRC+ off of lefties with a 14.8% walk rate and a 22.7% strikeout rate. In addition, they have five hitters with a xwOBA over .400 off of southpaws this month.

In relief, the addition of Leiter Jr. will help. New York dealt Caleb Ferguson, but has several arms under a 4.00 xFIP this month. Overall, the Yankees' bullpen has posted a July xFIP of 3.24 with a 27.1% strikeout rate and a sub-9% walk rate.

Philadelphia Phillies

Now, Sánchez is better than Cortes. He has an ERA just above 3.00 with an xERA under 3.60. Additionally, he has been excellent in terms of limiting walks and keeping the ball on the ground. However, against lefties in July, the Yankees have a high walk rate, which could cause Sánchez some issues. Look for the middle of the Yankees' order to manufacture runs.

The Phillies probably have the more complete lineup, but the top of the order might be a tad worse than New York’s against lefties. The Phillies have a 140 wRC+ in July off lefties and walk 10.1% of the time with an 18.9% strikeout rate. They have eight bats above a .340 xwOBA, so Cortes will have his hands full, but the bullpen depth will also help.

In relief, the Phillies traded Gregory Soto and Seranthony Domínguez, but added Estévez to close down games. Their collective bullpen xFIP is right around 4.00 this month. They have also walked 10.1% of hitters in July, so New York’s patience could pay off.

Yankees vs. Phillies

Betting Pick & Prediction

Look for Cortes to limit walks and potentially throw five innings. Both lineups are comprable against lefties, but the Yankees have the better bullpen at the moment. Ride that wave and take the Yankees on the moneyline.