Yankees vs. Rangers prediction, pick, odds for Mon. 9/2

Nick Martin’s Yankees vs. Rangers Preview

New York Yankees Betting Preview: Cole Continues to Throw Well

The Yankees have been the best team in baseball against teams above .500, but have struggled to take full advantage against softer competition.

They are heavy favorites in Monday's matchup and will surely be a popular bet with Cole matching up against an unproven rookie sporting a 12.85 ERA.

Cole has remained highly effective with a 2.95 ERA over 39 2/3 innings pitched since the All-Star Break. He holds an xFIP of 3.68 in that span and has struck out 9.76 batters per nine inning. He also has a .244 xBA in that timeframe.

Stranding 89.2% of runners has been key to his success since the All-Star Break, but that could be an unsustainable mark moving forward. However, he has had a pretty large sample of dominance with runners in scoring position. Dating back to last season, he has allowed an OBP of only .248 with RISP.

Cole's Stuff+ rating is down to 112 this season compared to 121 last year and 139 in 2022, but he does still feature three pitches that grade out as better than average.

The Yankees' offense continues to crush right-handed pitching. Since July 1st, the Yankees have a 129 wRC+ against righties with a .822 OPS.

Texas Rangers Betting Preview: Growing Pains for Leiter

Leiter has the stuff you'd expect from a former No. 2 overall pick, but the early results at the MLB level have been disastrous. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 114, including far above league average ratings on his fastball, changeup and slider. In 77 innings in Triple-A this season Leiter has pitched to a 3.51 ERA of 3.51.

The Rangers are 8-4 over their past 12 games, but three of those series came against the White Sox, Pirates and Athletics. Even still, they have averaged only 3.08 runs per game.

Yankees vs. Rangers Prediction, Betting Analysis

Cole looks to be a lesser pitcher than in the past, but still figures to be an above average starter moving forward. He gets a great matchup versus one of the league's most disappointing offenses, one that has been particularly bad against right-handed pitching.

Leiter has the stuff to succeed and should stabilize over a larger sample. However, he gets a tough matchup here.

A betting total of 8.5 runs looks a little too high for this matchup and I see value backing the under at plus money. Totals at Globe Life Field are 23-43-2 (Over/Under).

Pick: Under 8.5 Runs +105 (Bet365, Play to +100)

Moneyline

Run Line (Spread)

Over/Under

Yankees vs Rangers Betting Trends

• 85% of the bets and 91% of the money are on the Yankees on the moneyline.
• 88% of the bets and 84% of the money are on the OVER.
• 86% of the bets and 73% of the money are on the Yankees to cover the run line.

Yankees Betting Trends

• The Yankees are 1-4 in their last five games
• New York has a .554 win percentage as a favorite this season
• The Yankees are 5-5 in their last ten games

Rangers Betting Trends

• The Rangers are 4-1 in their last five games.
• Games have gone OVER the total in 23 of the Rangers last 68 games at HOME
• Texas is 7-3 straight-up in its last ten games

About the Author

Nick Martin is a writer for The Action Network's NHL and MLB verticals, and is a co-host of Action's Line Change hockey podcast. Before becoming a full-time writer and handicapper, he acquired numerous personal and group training certifications and worked full-time in the fitness and recreation fields.

Follow Nick Martin @nickm_hockey on Twitter/X.