Yankees vs. Royals prediction, pick, odds for ALDS Game 4 on Thursday, Oct. 10

Yankees vs. Royals Projected Starting Pitchers

Kenny Ducey’s Yankees vs. Royals Preview

New York Yankees Betting Preview: Cole Eyes a Return to Form

The Yankees’ offense found just enough on Wednesday to take a 2-1 lead in this series, but it should be said that this has been a pretty brutal lineup to watch over the past three games.

Hitting just .211 in the series, the Yankees have relied upon a boisterous 18.5% walk rate and some well-placed power. But without hits, it’s going to be very difficult to capitalize on all the walks they’re taking. Unless New York is coming up with three or more walks in an inning, this simply won’t be a winning strategy — especially if the Yankees continue at a one-homer-per-game pace.

The saving grace here may be the fact that the Yankees have put up a .259 Expected Batting Average, which, as you can see, is much more palatable than their actual results. Furthermore, their .479 Expected Slugging is a whopping 142 points lower than what they’ve produced. There’s good reason for this, considering Kansas City’s defense sat atop baseball in Outs Above Average this season, but you’d still expect some positive regression here even if it’s marginal.

There certainly won’t be positive regression heading Gerrit Cole’s way if he manages to pitch the way he did in Game 1 of this series. He allowed seven hits to the Royals, including a home run, and didn’t fall victim to bad luck with a .355 xBA and .719 xSLG against him in that one. His strikeout rate, which had been growing by leaps and bounds down the stretch, fell under 18% in that start against a very punchout-prone Royals side, and he also issued two walks to boot.

This was a pitcher who entered the series with a postseason ERA under three runs and pitched to a 2.25 ERA in the final two months of the season, however, so perhaps he can pull up his bootstraps and produce in a closeout game.

Kansas City Royals Betting Preview 

The Royals didn’t exactly get Michael Wacha’s best outing when these two pitchers squared off in Game 1, either. An expert in limiting free passes, Wacha allowed three walks over four frames and gave up four hits — three of which went for extra bases.

His xBA came in at a neater .266 in that one, but the walks and a tough .535 xSLG told the tale for him there. Yes, Wacha will theoretically enjoy life as a fly-ball pitcher away from Yankee Stadium this go-round, particularly considering New York’s preference for ground-ball arms, but a more spacious outfield could very well mean the Yankees are able to turn around some of their poor batted ball luck on grounders.

The Yankees hit a strong .257 at Kauffman Stadium this year, though they did manage just four hits in Wednesday’s Game 3 and will have to solve a pitcher in Wacha who’s pitched to an excellent 2.89 ERA at home this year.

Kansas City’s lineup enjoys home games, too, posting an OPS 62 points higher than its number on the road, and it’s now hit .240 in this series after entering the postseason as one of the very worst offenses in baseball over the final two weeks of the regular season. Strikeouts have still been a slight concern, but Wednesday certainly was a step in the right direction.

Yankees vs. Royals Prediction, Betting Analysis

This series has been a bit of a slog offensively save for one big inning by the Royals in Game 2, but I do think this could be the night where both sides begin to really move runners around the bases.

Considering both pitchers have done a good job all year of limiting walks, we to have to be encouraged by what we saw in Game 1 of this series when Wacha and Cole squared off. I’m also expecting some better luck on batted balls for the Yankees, who will find more room in this spacious outfield in Kansas City and did hit Wacha quite well in Game 1, which should lead to several runs with the way this team’s been drawing walks.

Cole’s start in Game 1 was a bit of a mystery, but I think we have to read into that one-game sample for the sheer reason that a team that struck out more than 26% of the time in the final two weeks of the season managed to make plenty of contact against the right-hander. The Yankees’ defense ranked in the bottom five in OAA this year and will now have to cover a lot more ground in this park.

I’m backing the over here to eight runs.

Pick: Over 7.5 (-115)

Moneyline

We’ve tracked some big money hitting the Royals in this one, and with that, the line has moved ever so slightly in Kansas City’s favor with the Yankees falling to -155 from the opening line of -160.

Run Line (Spread)

The Yankees have gone a handsome 49-33 to the run line on the road this season, though dating back to the regular season, they’ve covered in just one of their last six — which was Game 1 of this series.

Over/Under

The sharp action is hitting the under in this game, perhaps as a result of that bet hitting in the past two games of the series. With that said, the Yankees rank fifth baseball with a 60.3% hit rate to the over as road favorites, while Kansas City has gone an acceptable 15-14-1 to the over as home underdogs.

Yankees Betting Trends

• Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
• Yankees are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
• Yankees are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Yankees’ last 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 45 of Yankees’ 81 last games at home

Royals Betting Trends

• Royals are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
• Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
• Royals are 44-37 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Royals’ last 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 38 of Royals’ 81 last games at home