Zac Gallen: A Frontline Starter Hidden in Plain Sight

Arsenal Breakdown: Vertical Tunnels, Tight Shapes, Repeatable Movement

Zac Gallen succeeds with one of the most shape-consistent and vertically oriented arsenals among frontline right-handers. His pitch mix is defined by north-south separation, sequencing, and command rather than extreme raw movement or velocity.

Four-Seam Fastball (93.5 mph)

Gallen’s four-seamer features 17.2 inches of induced vertical break, placing it slightly above league average.

While it does not have elite “ride,” the pitch carries well enough to stay off barrels at the top of the zone, particularly because it has reduced horizontal movement compared to a typical right-hander. This tighter shape profile helps it play truer and enhances its ability to tunnel with his curveball.

Knuckle Curve (81.1 mph)

The curveball is the primary “south” complement and one of the defining pitches of Gallen’s arsenal. It generates 11.5 inches of vertical drop, making it one of the deeper curves in the league, while its 4.9 inches of induced horizontal break is below league average.

The result is a pitch that moves primarily straight down, creating stark vertical separation from the four-seam fastball. This depth-over-sweep profile allows Gallen to dominate north-south tunnels and force hitters to make large bat-path adjustments.

Changeup (86.3 mph)

Gallen’s changeup provides the primary arm-side east-west element to his arsenal. Although its horizontal movement is slightly below the league average for right-handers, it still generates meaningful arm-side fade, particularly when sequenced off his fastball shape. Its velocity band and movement allow him to target left-handed hitters and disrupt timing after elevated fastballs.

Slider (88.0 mph)

The slider is more of a short, vertical-action slider than a sweeper, with modest glove-side movement and above-average depth for the velocity. It serves as a firmer glove-side option that is less about generating chase and more about creating speed differentials and limiting hard contact within his tunnel structure.

Cutter (89.5 mph)

Gallen’s cutter is shaped intentionally close to his slider—firm, short, and glove-side. The cutter is used to steal early-count strikes, jam right-handed hitters, and give him a bridge pitch between the fastball and slider.

Because the slider and cutter share such similar shapes, hitters must honor both speeds without being able to key on a single break profile.

Arsenal Identity: A North-South Engine Built on Precision and Shape Consistency

• Vertical separation between his four-seam fastball and knuckle curve
• Tight east-west variants (slider/cutter) to prevent hitters from cheating vertically
• Selective arm-side movement from the changeup
• Command and sequencing to maximize the interactions among these shapes

The overarching identity is that of a pitcher who wins in the vertical plane, using clean movement patterns, consistent tunneling, and intelligent mix sequencing rather than pure raw stuff. This north-south foundation is what enables his arsenal to play above the sum of its individual pitches.

Free-Agency Valuation: Bounce-Back Potential with Frontline Upside

Zac Gallen entered free agency at an inflection point in his career. After emerging as a true frontline arm in 2022-23 and helping anchor Arizona’s rotation during their World Series run, Gallen’s 2025 performance represented a meaningful step backward.

His season was marked by early command issues, below-expectation fastball precision, and inconsistency executing his offspeed tunnel — particularly in the first half. These challenges contributed to elevated contact quality and stretches where he looked far from the dominant presence he had been at his peak.

Despite those struggles, Gallen’s profile still carries real value. He managed to stabilize in the second half and ultimately logged 192 innings, reaffirming his durability and ability to shoulder a top-of-the-rotation workload.

His arsenal identity remains intact, and the underlying pitch shapes — especially the vertical pairing of his four-seam fastball and knuckle curve — still give him the foundation to pitch like a No. 2 starter when his command returns to form.

From a valuation standpoint, Gallen’s Arsenal Score projects him as a $28.6 million AAV pitcher, essentially placing him in the range of a top-20 starter when assessed solely on pitch quality, movement profiles, and usage-weighted performance potential. However, free-agency markets price not only projected stuff quality, but also recency, health, command stability, and risk.

Because of his uneven 2025 campaign, Gallen is unlikely to secure a nine-figure deal this offseason.

Instead, he fits the archetype of a short-term, high-AAV bounce-back candidate: a pitcher who still possesses frontline ingredients but must demonstrate that his 2025 inconsistency was the outlier, not the new norm. At age 31, he is also well-positioned to re-enter the market a year later if he rebounds.

A realistic outcome is a front-loaded two-year contract that allows both sides to mitigate risk:

• Two years, $50 million total value
• $30 million salary in year one
• Player option after year one, enabling him to test the market again at age 32 if he re-establishes his 2023-level performance

Such a structure aligns with Gallen’s Arsenal Score valuation while acknowledging his volatility in 2025. For a club seeking a potential frontline upside arm without the long-term financial exposure, and for Gallen seeking the quickest path back to a major multi-year payday, this contract framework represents a strong mutual fit.