Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva prediction, odds, pick for UFC 315

We’re back for another betting prediction and pick for UFC 315 as the Main Card gets underway from Montreal with this next bout taking place in the Women’s Flyweight (125) Division. Former champion and No. 1 contender Alexa Grasso of Mexico will face No. 5-ranked Natalia Silva of Brazil. Check the UFC odds series for our Grasso-Silva prediction and pick.

Alexa Grasso (16-4-1) has gone 8-4-1 since 2016 en route to holding the Women’s Flyweight belt. After beating Valentina Shevchenko in one of the sport’s greatest upsets, the two fought to a draw as she subsequently fell to Shevchenko in the following bout. Now, she’s hoping to earn another title opportunity with a win over a hungry contender. Grasso stands 5-foot-5 with a 66-inch reach.

Natalia Silva (18-5-1) has gone a perfect 6-0 in the UFC since 2016. She’s notched four decision wins and two knockouts with kicks up to this point, most recently taking down divisional veterans in Viviane Araujo and Jessica Andrade. She’ll look for her biggest win thus far as she hopes to become the next worthy title challenger. Silva stands 5-foot-4 with a 65-inch reach.

Here are the UFC 315 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 315 Odds: Alexa Grasso-Natalia Silva Odds

Alexa Grasso: +210

Natalia Silva: -258

Over 2.5 rounds: -500

Under 2.5 rounds: +340

Why Alexa Grasso Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Valentina Shevchenko – U DEC
• Last 5: 3-1-1
• Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 2 SUB

Alexa Grasso fell to Valentina Shevchenko during her last bout and much of that can be attributed to fatigue in having to face the division’s greatest fighter. With a 1-1-1 record against Valentina, Grasso has gained years of experience in just three fights and has seen the toughest competition available at the weight class. Holding the belt previously will also bode well for her confidence as she comes in the surprising betting underdog.

Alexa Grasso is polished just about everywhere when it comes to her striking and grappling, often mixing both very well when trying to break her opponents down. Her cardio is also world-class and she has no problem keeping pace in the later rounds, so this three-round environment should serve her well in keeping her foot on the gas throughout the entire fight.

On the ground, Grasso has shown great ability to reverse positions and put her opponents in bad spots. However, her striking is what will stand out during this matchup as she continues to move forward despite her opponent’s offense. If she can manage to be the cleaner striker by the third round, she should be able to turn the tide in her direction during this fight.

Why Natalia Silva Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Jessica Andrade – U DEC
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 7 SUB

Natalia Silva has been a tornado in terms of facing better competition and she walks opponents down with a fearless attitude. While she’s been more successful chasing submissions during her time on the regional circuit, much of her UFC stint has been identified by her relentless striking and ability to keep marching forward through the fire. She hardly allows opponents to find their own rhythm as she’s constantly pressuring with her high-volume punching and strong kicking game.

Natalia Silva has only seen three-round fights thus far, but she has yet to face someone with championship experience while still in their prime like Alexa Grasso. She did a great job of negating the striking of a dangerous fighter like Jessica Andrade, but she’ll have a much tougher task in dealing with the constant output of Alexa Grasso.

Silva’s greatest strength is her relentless confidence and she won’t be deterred in the slightest when standing across a former champion. She immediately takes the center of the octagon and lands an impressive 5.19 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.35 on her end.

Final Alexa Grasso-Natalia Silva Prediction & Pick

This will be an extremely high-level fight between two talented strikers and it’s honestly a surprise to see Alexa Grasso as such a sizable betting underdog. Her experience as a champion and facing Valentina Shevchenko on three occasions will be her biggest strength during this bout, especially if she finds herself behind on the striking numbers by the third round.

While Natalia Silva hasn’t shown any visible holes in her game thus far, she’s been extremely eager with her striking and hasn’t seen much resistance up to this point. Her chin is very solid, as is Grasso’s, so we should see both sides absorb some damage throughout this fight.

Ultimately, we have to side with Alexa Grasso at these betting odds considering her recent success in the division. Her training camp is also one of the world’s best and she’s poised for another title run. Let’s roll with the former champ as the betting underdog.

Final Alexa Grasso-Natalia Silva Prediction & Pick: Alexa Grasso (+210)