Ariane Da Silva vs. Wang Cong Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC 316

Check out my Da Silva vs. Cong prediction for UFC 316 on Saturday, June 7.

Here’s my Da Silva vs. Cong prediction for tonight.

Ariane Da Silva vs. Wang Cong Odds

Da Silva vs. Cong Pick

Ariana da Silva (nee Lipski) missed weight by six pounds on Friday and was fined 30% of her purse.

While this fight sets up as a potentially violent matchup between two dangerous strikers, we are getting a reasonable price on the fight to go the distance, compared to the divisional average of 68% in three-round fights.

I projected this bout to reach a decision 56% of the time (-130 implied odds) and would bet the distance prop up to -120.

Da Silva. She has good offensive submission skills, but lacks excellent wrestling skills and may struggle with the physicality of Cong. Moreover, while she was knocked out on her feet by Priscila Cachoeira, Da Silva has struggled more with her bottom game, and Cong seems unlikely to grapple proactively in this fight; even if she does, I don’t think she has the submission skills to finish a superior grappler on the mat.

I’m certainly less confident in the read following Da Silva’s dramatic weight miss, however, since she has shown cardio concerns in past fights. As a result, I’d keep any staking here small.

Da Silva vs. Cong Predictions

Picks:

• Fight Goes to Decision (+100, 0.25u) at Caesars (bet to -120)