Ateba Gautier vs Ozzy Diaz Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC 328 (Saturday, May 9)

Ateba Gautier vs. Ozzy Diaz Odds

Check out the Ateba Gautier vs. Ozzy Diaz prediction for UFC 328 on Saturday, May 9, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

Here’s my Gautier vs. Diaz pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Gautier vs. Diaz Pick, Prediction

Saturday’s featured prelim sets up as a highlight reel knockout opportunity for Cameroonian-born Ateba Gautier, who is both the biggest favorite on the card and 11 years younger than his opponent, Ozzy Diaz.

Gautier has scored at least one knockdown in each of his five promotional fights, including a pair in a decision win over Andrey Pulyaev in his last outing. Conversely, Diaz was knocked down and put out by both Joe Pyfer and Mingyang Zhang in his first two promotional appearances, before scoring a decision win over Djorden Santos.

Gautier showed an inability to cut off the cage and appropriately pressure a mobile Pulyaev, but Diaz is far more flat-footed and will be there for Gautier to slug in the pocket. If the fight extends, Diaz’s only chance is to outpace Gautier and land more volume.

It’s difficult to find an actionable betting angle on this fight, as I don’t see any playable edges on the moneyline, total, or any winning-method props at current prices, and I can’t recommend Gautier by Round 1 KO/TKO with that line juiced to -140 (at best). Still, that line indicates that you should load up on Gautier in DFS lineups.

If you need a bet for this fight, I’d lean towards an SGP with Gautier and Under 0.5 Rounds (+230); five of his eight career wins have ended within 2.5 minutes, and given his prospect status and potential trajectory, Diaz may be, by far, the easiest opponent he will ever face again.

Projection: Gautier (87.9%)  

Sean’s Picks:

• SGP: Ateba Gautier and Under 0.5 Rounds (+230, 0.1u), DraftKings; bet to +200