Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena prediction, odds, pick for UFC 315

UFC 315: Belal Muhammad versus Jack Della Maddalena continues on the main card with the main event welterweight title fight between Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena. Check out our UFC odds series for our Muhammad-Della Maddalena prediction and pick.

Belal Muhammad (25-3, 1 NC) claimed the UFC welterweight title with a dominant decision over Leon Edwards last summer, extending his unbeaten streak to 11. Now, after suffocating top contenders with relentless pressure and cardio, Muhammad looks to defend his belt for the first time against Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 315.

Jack Della Maddalena (17-2) has surged to a 7-0 UFC record, notching five finishes and performance bonuses along the way. After razor-thin decision wins over Bassil Hafez and Kevin Holland, Della Maddalena rallied to stop Gilbert Burns in the third round of his last fight. Now, he challenges Belal Muhammad for UFC gold in Montreal.

Here are the UFC 315 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 315 Odds: Belal Muhammad-Jack Della Maddalena Odds

Belal Muhammad: -192

Jack Della Maddalena: +160

Over 4.5 rounds: -200

Under 4.5 rounds: +154

Why Belal Muhammad Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Leon Edwards – DEC
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 6 (5 KO/TKO/1 SUB)

Belal Muhammad is poised to defend his welterweight title against Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 315 by leveraging his relentless pressure, elite wrestling, and unmatched cardio. Muhammad’s game plan centers on suffocating opponents with constant forward movement, mixing takedown attempts with high-volume striking to disrupt their rhythm and sap their energy. He’s unbeaten in his last 11 fights, including a dominant win over Leon Edwards to claim the belt, and has repeatedly shown the ability to outlast and outwork even the most dangerous strikers in the division.

Della Maddalena’s striking is dangerous, but his takedown defense and experience in five-round wars remain untested at this level. Muhammad’s ability to maintain a torrid pace, adapt his approach, and exploit grappling advantages will likely wear down the Aussie over 25 minutes. As the fight progresses, Muhammad’s pressure and top control should accumulate, limiting Della Maddalena’s opportunities to land clean shots. Expect Muhammad to dictate the tempo, drag Della Maddalena into deep waters, and secure a clear decision or late stoppage, reaffirming his status as the division’s top welterweight.

Why Jack Della Maddalena Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Gilbert Burns – KO/TKO R3
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 14 (12 KO/TKO/2 SUB)

Jack Della Maddalena has the tools to dethrone Belal Muhammad at UFC 315, thanks to his elite striking, finishing instincts, and ability to adapt under pressure. The Australian boasts a 7-0 UFC record with five finishes, including a dramatic comeback knockout of Gilbert Burns. Della Maddalena lands nearly seven significant strikes per minute, making him one of the most prolific and accurate strikers in the division. His calm demeanor and sharp shot selection allow him to capitalize on even the smallest openings, and he’s proven he can rally from adversity, as seen in his recent fights.

While Muhammad’s relentless pressure and wrestling are formidable, Della Maddalena’s path to victory lies in maintaining distance, using lateral movement, and punishing Muhammad’s entries with crisp counters and power combinations. If he can stuff early takedown attempts and keep the fight standing, his knockout power becomes a constant threat over five rounds. With Muhammad’s style forcing exchanges, Della Maddalena’s timing and finishing ability could turn the tide in a single moment. Expect the Aussie to weather early grappling, find his range, and deliver a statement win-potentially by knockout, to capture UFC gold, and announce himself as the division’s most dangerous striker.

Final Belal Muhammad-Jack Della Maddalena Prediction & Pick

Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 315 is a fascinating clash between relentless wrestling pressure and elite striking. Muhammad, the reigning welterweight champion, enters on an 11-fight unbeaten streak, having claimed the belt with a dominant performance over Leon Edwards. His game is built on suffocating cardio, world-class wrestling, and a tactical approach that grinds down even the division’s best. Analysts and AI models consistently favor Muhammad’s ability to control the pace, mix in takedowns, and wear out opponents over five rounds

Jack Della Maddalena, meanwhile, is a dangerous finisher with a 7-0 UFC record and five stoppages, including a comeback knockout of Gilbert Burns. His striking is sharp and accurate, and he’s shown resilience in tough situations. However, his takedown defense has been tested, notably being taken down multiple times by both Bassil Hafez and Burns, an area Muhammad is likely to exploit. The consensus is that if Muhammad can impose his wrestling and keep the fight off the feet, he should retain his title, most likely by decision. Still, Della Maddalena’s knockout power remains a constant threat if he can keep it standing. Expect a tactical, high-stakes battle with Muhammad’s pressure prevailing.

Final Belal Muhammad-Jack Della Maddalena Prediction & Pick: Belal Muhammad (-192), Over 4.5 rounds (-200)