Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Billy Elekana.

Bogdan Guskov vs. Billy Elekana Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC 311

Originally posted on Action Network | By Sean Zerillo | Last updated Jan 18, 2025 8:36 AM ET

Bogdan Guskov (16-3) faces Billy Elekana (7-1) in the UFC 311 prelims on Saturday night at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, Calif.

Guskov is 2-1 to start his UFC career and is coming off a pair of wins over Zac Pauga and Ryan Spann. Elekana is making his UFC debut and is a noteworthy underdog in this matchup.

Let’s get into my Guskov vs. Elekana prediction and preview in the bantamweight division tonight.

Bogdan Guskov vs. Billy Elekana Odds, Prediction

Light Heavyweight Bout	Odds
Bogdan Guskov Odds	-395
Billy Elekana Odds	+310
Over/under rounds	1.5 (+100 / -130)

Odds via DraftKings as of Friday night.

Crowdsourced Projections: Bogdan Guskov (71.9%)

The betting market hasn’t been high on Guskov, who closed as an underdog (+154, +120, and +165, respectively) and ultimately seemed outclassed at points in his three UFC fights despite a 2-1 record.

Guskov was a surprising betting favorite against Johnny Walker. Still, the line has moved even further in his direction against short-notice replacement Billy Elekana, a PFL veteran and the more well-rounded fighter.

Elekana has never been finished (his lone loss was a split decision), and he has the grappling upside in this matchup. Guskov isn’t exceptionally durable and has a known grappling deficiency.

Guskov should be the more powerful puncher, and he retains the finishing upside against any opponent. However, this line could be flipped if Elekana pursues a wrestling-oriented game plan and lands takedowns from the outset.

Guskov vs. Elekana Prediction

Bet the underdog pre-fight to +275 and wait to add more live after Round 1, most likely if Guskov lands a knockdown but swings himself out unsuccessfully trying to finish.

In the prop market, I’d consider Elekana to win inside the distance (projected +474, listed +500) and potentially in Round 2 (+1700) or Round 3 (+2500) after weathering an early storm.

Bets