Brad Katona vs. Bekzat Almakhan prediction, odds, pick for UFC 315

UFC 315: Belal Muhammad versus Jack Della Maddalena kicks off the prelims with a fight between Brad Katona and Bekzat Almakhan in the bantamweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Katona-Almakhan prediction and pick.

Brad Katona (16-4) enters UFC 315 after alternating wins and losses in his second UFC stint. He rebounded from a close decision loss to Garrett Armfield with a dominant victory over Jesse Butler, but then dropped a unanimous decision to Jean Matsumoto last October. Katona now looks to regain momentum against Bekzat Almakhan in Montreal.

Bekzat Almakhan (17-2) impressed with back-to-back knockouts over Yan Ferraz and Mateus Gloria before dropping his UFC debut via unanimous decision to Umar Nurmagomedov in March. Now, Almakhan aims to bounce back and make a statement against Brad Katona at UFC 315 in Montreal.

Here are the UFC 315 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 315 Odds: Brad Katona-Bekzat Almakhan Odds

Brad Katona: +130

Bekzat Almakhan: -155

Over 2.5 rounds: -345

Under 2.5 rounds: +250

Why Brad Katona Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Jean Matsumoto – DEC
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 4 (1 KO/TKO/3 SUB)

Brad Katona’s edge against Bekzat Almakhan at UFC 315 comes from his deep UFC experience, proven resilience, and tactical versatility. Katona is the only fighter to win The Ultimate Fighter twice, conquering two different weight classes and amassing the second-most wins in the show’s history. His ability to thrive under pressure, adapt to different opponents, and maintain composure in high-stakes situations sets him apart. Even in defeat, Katona has shown grit, going the distance with top prospects like Jean Matsumoto and never being finished in his career. His well-rounded skill set, mixing striking, clinch work, and grappling, makes him a difficult puzzle for any opponent.

Almakhan, though talented, remains relatively untested at the UFC level, having lost his debut to Umar Nurmagomedov after a strong run on the regional scene. While Almakhan has youth and reach on his side, Katona’s defensive acumen and ability to control the pace should allow him to neutralize Almakhan’s explosiveness. Expect Katona to use his experience to dictate the fight, mixing takedowns and volume striking to outwork Almakhan over three rounds. With the Montreal crowd behind him, Katona is well-positioned to secure a decision victory and reassert himself as a contender in the bantamweight division.

Why Bekzat Almakhan Will Win

• Last Fight: (L) Umar Nurmagomedov – DEC
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 10 (9 KO/TKO/1 SUB)

Bekzat Almakhan enters UFC 315 with explosive striking, underrated wrestling, and a hunger to prove himself after a tough debut against Umar Nurmagomedov. Despite that loss, Almakhan made a statement by dropping Nurmagomedov, the only fighter to do so in the UFC, showcasing his knockout power and ability to threaten elite opponents. With a full training camp this time, Almakhan is expected to be sharper, more prepared, and able to implement his aggressive game plan from the opening bell.

Katona’s experience and cardio are well-known, but he has struggled against well-rounded, athletic opponents who can match his pace and neutralize his grappling. Almakhan’s ability to explode with powerful combinations and mix in takedowns makes him a dangerous matchup for Katona, who has been outstruck and outwrestled by higher-level competition in the past. If Almakhan can keep the fight standing and land his heavy kicks and punches, he has the tools to hurt Katona and sway the judges with damage. Expect Almakhan to use his reach, athleticism, and finishing instincts to secure a statement win and announce himself as a real threat in the bantamweight division.

Final Brad Katona-Bekzat Almakhan Prediction & Pick

Bekzat Almakhan vs. Brad Katona at UFC 315 is a compelling clash of styles, youth, and experience. Katona, fighting in front of a home Canadian crowd, brings a wealth of UFC experience and a reputation for grit, durability, and a well-rounded game. He’s never been finished and often drags opponents into deep waters with his pace and cardio. However, his lack of finishing ability and tendency to get drawn into close, competitive decisions have made him vulnerable against athletic, explosive opponents.

Almakhan, meanwhile, arrives with momentum despite dropping his UFC debut to Umar Nurmagomedov, a fight where he became the first to drop the top contender, showing real power and composure under pressure. With a full camp, a four-inch reach advantage, and a dynamic striking arsenal, Almakhan is favored by oddsmakers and many analysts to use his speed, power, and takedown defense to keep the fight standing and edge out Katona. While Katona’s experience and toughness make him a live underdog, the prediction is that Almakhan’s athleticism, striking volume, and finishing instincts will earn him a decision or late stoppage, announcing his arrival as a real threat in the bantamweight division.

Final Brad Katona-Bekzat Almakhan Prediction & Pick: Bekzat Almakhan (-155), Over 2.5 rounds (-345)