Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC 328 (Saturday, May 9)

Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images. Pictured: Clayton Carpenter

Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC 328 (Saturday, May 9)

Originally posted on Action Network | By Sean Zerillo | Last updated May 9, 2026 7:11 AM ET

Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa Odds

Carpenter Odds	+150
Ochoa Odds	-180
Over/Under	2.5 (-195/+150)
Location	Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey
Bout Time	5:15 p.m. ET
TV/Streaming	Paramount+
UFC 328 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 328 with our DraftKings promo code.

Check out the Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa prediction for UFC 328 on Saturday, May 9, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

Here’s my Carpenter vs. Ochoa pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

	Carpenter	Ochoa
Record	8-2	8-2 (1 NC)
Avg. Fight Time	9:01	11:44
Height	5’6″	5’7″
Weight (pounds)	125 lbs.	125 lbs.
Reach (inches)	75″	76″
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Date of birth	5/1/1994	2/27/1991
Sig Strikes Per Min	4.04	6.04
SS Accuracy	60%	42%
SS Absorbed Per Min	2.32	4.57
SS Defense	43%	60%
Take Down Avg	5.29	0.71
TD Acc	55%	64%
TD Def	85%	76%
Submission Avg	1.8	0.2

Carpenter vs. Ochoa Pick, Prediction

There are a plethora of striker vs. grappler matchups on this card, including the opener between American Clayton Carpenter and Brazilian-trained Peruvian Jose Ochoa.

Carpenter earned a contract with a decision over Edgar Chairez on Contender Series in 2022 and finished each of his first two opponents with rear-naked chokes, but has struggled against fellow grapplers in recent matchups (a decision loss to Tagir Ulanbekov and a submission loss to Jafel Filho). Ochoa has a close loss to Lone’er Kavanagh and a finish over Cody Durden, but he was outgrappled by Asu Almabayev (landed 7 takedowns, 9:26 control time) in his last fight.

Carpenter is a relatively proactive wrestler (3.7 attempts per five minutes at distance). Still, I view him as a lesser grappler (49% control rate) and athlete than a fighter like Almabayev, for instance, and with Ochoa training at the same gym as Charles Oliveira, Daniel Willycat Santos, Marco Tulio, and other UFC talent, we know that Ochoa (59%) and other fighters in that gym don’t have the best takedown defense, but they all have the skillset to scramble back to their feet.

Ochoa has a clear striking edge (+0.9 to +0.5 differential per minute at distance with more power), which has added value in a southpaw vs. orthodox matchup.

I projected Ochoa’s moneyline near -200, and I would bet him to around -185 prefight.

You can also monitor how he responds to the grappling exchanges in the first round, and potentially add a live bet too. I’d expect Carpenter to land an early takedown or two. Still, if Ochoa can scramble back up with confidence, or if he loses a close round while getting outwrestled early but has more success near the end, I would consider taking or adding to a position on his moneyline.

Projection: Ochoa (66.5%)

Sean’s Picks: