Evan Elder vs. Gauge Young prediction, odds, pick for UFC Kansas City

UFC Kansas City: Ian Machado Garry versus Carlos Prates continues on the prelims with a fight between Evan Elder and Gauge Young in the lightweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Elder-Young prediction and pick.

Evan Elder (9-2) comes into UFC Kansas City riding a two-fight win streak, having submitted Darrius Flowers in the second round last July after outpointing Genaro Valdez by unanimous decision. Now, Elder looks to keep his momentum going and extend his streak against short-notice newcomer Gauge Young this Saturday night.

Gauge Young (9-2) steps into UFC Kansas City on short notice after a second-round knockout victory in his last fight, after coming off a unanimous decision loss to Quillan Salkilld on Dana White’s Contender Series. Prior to that, Young scored back-to-back first-round TKOs over Josh Tulley and Brexton Everett. Now, he looks to make a statement in his UFC debut against Evan Elder.

Here are the UFC Kansas City Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Kansas City Odds: Evan Elder-Gauge Young Odds

Evan Elder: -218

Gauge Young: +180

Over 2.5 rounds: -270

Under 2.5 rounds: +200

Why Evan Elder Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Darrius Flowers – SUB R2
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 6 (4 KO/TKO/2 SUB)

Evan Elder enters UFC Kansas City with momentum and a clear edge in experience, making him a strong pick to defeat Gauge Young this weekend. Elder is riding a two-fight win streak, most recently submitting Darrius Flowers and previously earning a dominant decision over Genaro Valdez. His ability to win through knockouts, submissions, and decisions highlights his versatility and adaptability inside the octagon. Elder’s UFC tenure has exposed him to higher-caliber opponents, giving him valuable cage time and composure under pressure, factors that often prove decisive against promotional newcomers.

Gauge Young, a late replacement, is a dangerous striker with six knockouts among his nine wins, but he has yet to secure a victory at the UFC level and is making his debut on short notice. While Young’s finishing ability is a legitimate threat, his lack of experience against UFC-level competition and limited time to prepare for Elder’s well-rounded attack could be significant disadvantages. Elder’s recent improvements, focus on growth, and proven grappling skills should allow him to dictate the pace, exploit any defensive lapses, and potentially secure a submission or decision victory. Expect Elder’s experience and versatility to be the difference-maker in this lightweight clash.

Why Gauge Young Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Eric Grant – KO/TKO R2
• Last 5: 4-1
• Finishes: 7 (6 KO/TKO/1 SUB)

Gauge Young has the skill set and momentum to pull off an upset against Evan Elder at UFC Kansas City. Young, just 24, enters his UFC debut with a reputation for explosive finishes, boasting six knockout wins and a well-rounded game developed on the regional circuit. His aggressive pressure, sharp hands, and effective use of range have allowed him to overwhelm opponents early, as seen in his first-round TKOs over Josh Tulley and Brexton Everett. Young’s ability to mix in wrestling, demonstrated by his chain wrestling and top control, gives him multiple paths to victory, especially if he can dictate where the fight takes place.

While Elder brings more UFC experience, Young’s youth, athleticism, and recent activity could be decisive, especially with both fighters accepting this bout on short notice. Young was already in training camp, which may give him a conditioning edge. If he can use his jab to manage distance and capitalize on Elder’s defensive lapses, Young’s knockout power is a constant threat. Additionally, his underrated grappling and heavy ground-and-pound could help him steal rounds or even finish the fight on the mat. Expect Young’s aggression and finishing instincts to make the difference, potentially earning him a statement win in his UFC debut.

Final Evan Elder-Gauge Young Prediction & Pick

Evan Elder vs. Gauge Young at UFC Kansas City is a compelling matchup between a proven UFC talent and a dangerous debutant. Elder, with more Octagon experience and a well-rounded skill set, is the betting favorite and widely expected to control the action with his striking and grappling versatility. Young, however, brings serious knockout power, with six of his nine wins coming by KO, and was already in training camp, which could help offset some short-notice disadvantages. Both fighters are stepping in on short notice, but Elder’s composure against higher-level opponents and ability to mix up his attacks give him the edge. Expect Young to be dangerous early, but Elder’s experience and technical advantages should allow him to weather any storms and either secure a late finish or earn a clear decision victory.

Final Evan Elder-Gauge Young Prediction & Pick: Evan Elder (-218), Over 2.5 Rounds (-270)