Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images. Pictured: Merab Dvalishvili

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley Prediction, Picks, Odds for UFC 316

Originally posted on Action Network | By Sean Zerillo | Last updated Jun 7, 2025 8:06 AM ET

Check out my Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley prediction for UFC 316 on Saturday, June 7.

Here’s my Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley prediction for tonight.

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley Odds

Dvalishvili Odds	-310
O’Malley Odds	+250
Over/Under	4.5 Rounds (-260/+195)
Location	Prudential Center \| Newark, New Jersey
Bout Time	10:00 p.m. ET
TV/Streaming	ESPN+
UFC 316 odds via DraftKings as of Friday. Bet on UFC 316 with our DraftKings promo code.

Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley Pick

For additional information on Saturday’s main event and Welterweight title bout, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out my full fight preview.

In short, the perception in the betting market has essentially flipped between these fighters relative to the first matchup; public predictions were taking O’Malley to win the first fight between 65-70% of the time, despite odds near 50% implied, but the public is only picking him 25% of the time in this rematch, despite odds near 31%.

I projected Dvalishvili as a slight favorite (52.1%) in the first fight, and made him 64% (-178 implied) in the rematch.

And after betting Merab in the first fight, I show an actionable edge on O’Malley’s moneyline in the rematch, at +195 (33.9% implied) or better, at just over a two percent edge compared to my projection (36%).

However, given the cardio dynamic between these fighters, you can look for a live entry on Dvalishvili at any price point better than his pre-fight moneyline.