Nasrat Haqparast vs. Quillan Salkilld Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 321 (Saturday, October 25)

While he’ll mix in hooks and uppercuts, he typically throws those “long” as well, keeping his opponents at bay, or at least making them wade through some heavy shots if they want to close the distance.

Where he really stands out is in the dilemma he presents to his opponents by way of his wrestling and clinch game. Shorter opponents can’t reach him from the outside, which naturally causes them to press forward to close the distance. However, Salkillid is extremely well-versed in the clinch, so he can entangle advancing opponents, push them to the fence, and control the action from there.

He uses his long limbs to turn fighters’ backs to the fence, where the majority of his takedowns come from. In his two UFC/DWCS bouts that didn’t end in quick knockouts, he’s racked up 17 total takedowns. I wouldn’t categorize him as a great pure wrestler, but he has an exceptional knack for using the cage to his advantage, positioning himself in such a way that his opponents can’t regain defensive angles due to the presence of the fence.

Of course, 17 takedowns across six rounds means his opponents have found their way back to the feet fairly often as well. Getting takedowns is only half the battle; keeping top position and using it to score are also critical steps. Those 17 takedowns have yielded just 14 ground strikes landed and only one official submission attempt. That’s not enough to win rounds consistently, and would be my main area of focus if I were coaching the 25 year old.

On the feet, he can also be sucked into brawls against opponents who advance behind a high volume of strikes. His speed, power, and durability typically limit the downside of that plan, but as he climbs the ranks he’ll eventually run into fighters against whom that becomes problematic.

The critical question at UFC 321 is if Nasrat Haqparast is the level of fighter to challenge that approach.

He’s won five in a row against somewhat lower-level UFC competition, though the last two were both split decisions that most fans and media members had scored against him. He also has just two finishes in 14 UFC fights, the only one since 2019 coming against the famously glass-chinned Jamie Mullarkey.

That doesn’t suggest he’ll be able to significantly hurt Salkilld even if he does force the longer fighter into a close-range brawl. Haqparast typically throws with enough volume (over six significant strikes landed per minute) that he’ll be able to draw Salkilld into exchanging, but at worst it’s a coin flip which man will come out ahead in those instances.

Haqparast is also fairly content to circle on the outside for extended periods, which is fine against shorter opponents, but has led to him being out-struck by fighters who match or exceed his reach (Dan Hooker, King Green). That bodes well for Salkilld, who has the same dimensions as Hooker.

He does have strong takedown defense, stuffing all 13 takedown attempts from Gordon and holding an 84% overall rate. With the short-notice nature of this fight, I wouldn’t’ expect Salkilld to force the issue unless he gets some obvious openings.

Haqparast vs. Salkilld Pick, Prediction

I’m not worried about Salkilld needing to force the grappling, though, since I believe he can also win a striking fight.

The way I view this matchup is that an “ugly” fight is close to a toss-up, with both men having similarly fast hands and solid chins. However, a cleaner fight at distance is a huge advantage to Salkilld.

With both fighters likely operating with reduced gas tanks, Haqparast can probably only force wild exchanges for a limited period anyway, so I’ll take Salkilld. The best line is -110 at FanDuel, and I’d play him to -130.

Billy’s Pick: Quillan Salkilld -130 (FanDuel)