Reinier de Ridder vs. Bo Nickal prediction, odds, pick for UFC Iowa

UFC Iowa: Cory Sandhagen versus Deiveson Figueiredo continues on the main card, with the co-main event between Reinier de Ridder and Bo Nickal in the middleweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our de Ridder-Nickal prediction and pick.

Reinier de Ridder (19-2) rides a three-fight win streak into UFC Iowa, most recently submitting Kevin Holland in the first round at UFC 311 after a third-round arm-triangle choke of Gerald Meerschaert. Now, the former ONE double champ looks to derail Bo Nickal’s hype and extend his perfect UFC run this Saturday night.

Bo Nickal (7-0) remains undefeated as he heads into UFC Iowa, most recently earning a unanimous decision over Paul Craig at UFC 309 after submitting Cody Brundage in the second round at UFC 300. Now, Nickal looks to extend his perfect record and derail Reinier de Ridder’s momentum this Saturday night.

Here are the UFC Iowa Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC Iowa Odds: Reinier de Ridder-Bo Nickal Odds

Reinier de Ridder: +275

Bo Nickal: -345

Over 2.5 rounds: -105

Under 2.5 rounds: -125

Why Reinier de Ridder Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Kevin Holland – SUB R1
• Last 5: 3-2
• Finishes: 9 (3 KO/TKO/14 SUB)

Reinier de Ridder has the experience and skill set to hand Bo Nickal his first professional loss at UFC Des Moines. As a former two-division ONE Championship titleholder, de Ridder has faced and defeated a higher caliber of opposition than Nickal, who is still early in his MMA career. De Ridder’s grappling credentials are elite, he averages nearly seven takedowns per 15 minutes with a 46% success rate and boasts an 85% takedown defense, making him one of the most dangerous submission specialists in the division. His recent first-round submission over Kevin Holland and third-round finish of Gerald Meerschaert demonstrate his ability to control and finish high-level grapplers.

Strategically, de Ridder plans to force Nickal into wrestling exchanges, believing that Nickal showed hesitation to grapple with a submission threat in his last fight against Paul Craig. De Ridder is confident that his judo, clinch work, and submission game will surprise Nickal, especially if the fight becomes a battle of scrambles and positional control. If de Ridder can pressure Nickal, close the distance, and create grappling exchanges, his experience and submission arsenal give him a clear path to victory, potentially stealing the spotlight and halting Nickal’s hype in emphatic fashion.

Why Bo Nickal Will Win

• Last Fight: (W) Paul Craig – DEC
• Last 5: 5-0
• Finishes: 6 (2 KO/TKO/4 SUB)

Bo Nickal is poised to extend his undefeated streak against Reinier de Ridder at UFC Des Moines, leveraging his elite wrestling pedigree and evolving MMA arsenal. Nickal, a three-time NCAA champion, averages 3.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes and holds a striking defense rate of 64% compared to de Ridder’s 38%. His relentless pressure and takedown accuracy (50%) allow him to dictate where fights unfold, neutralizing de Ridder’s submission threats. Despite de Ridder’s 85% takedown defense, Nickal’s explosive entries and chain wrestling-honed against higher-caliber grapplers in training-could overwhelm the Dutchman’s judo-based approach.

De Ridder’s recent struggles against Gerald Meerschaert’s striking and Nickal’s improved stand-up game further tilt the odds. Nickal’s striking accuracy (63%) and lower absorbed strikes (1.86 per minute) suggest he can outpoint de Ridder on the feet if needed. With youth and cardio on his side, Nickal’s ability to blend wrestling with opportunistic submissions-evidenced by four UFC finishes-makes him a nightmare matchup. Expect Nickal to secure dominant positions, wear down de Ridder, and hunt for a late stoppage or decisive decision win.

Final Reinier de Ridder-Bo Nickal Prediction & Pick

Bo Nickal vs. Reinier de Ridder at UFC Iowa is one of the most intriguing grappler-versus-grappler matchups in recent memory. Nickal, a three-time NCAA Division I champion, enters as a significant favorite thanks to his elite wrestling, top control, and growing striking arsenal. His ability to dictate where the fight takes place has overwhelmed every opponent so far, but de Ridder’s submission game and experience as a former two-division ONE champion present a unique threat.

De Ridder has finished both of his UFC opponents by submission and will look to force Nickal into scrambles and capitalize on any positional mistakes. However, Nickal’s athleticism, pressure, and discipline-especially after a composed win over Paul Craig-suggest he can avoid the submission traps and control the action from the top. Expect a tense chess match on the mat, with Nickal’s wrestling edge and improved striking giving him the ability to win rounds and stifle de Ridder’s offense. While de Ridder is live for a submission, the most likely outcome is Nickal using his wrestling to control the majority of the fight and earn a clear decision victory, cementing his status as a top middleweight prospect.

Final Reinier de Ridder-Bo Nickal Prediction & Pick: Bo Nickal (-345), Over 2.5 Rounds (-105)