Editor’s note: The views and opinions expressed below are those
of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of
Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company,
Evolve Media.
* * *
It feels odd to note, but the
Julianna
Pena-
Amanda
Nunes bantamweight title tilt on Saturday in Dallas will be the
first women’s bout to headline an
Ultimate Fighting Championship pay-per-view in over two years.
It’s a good choice to play that role, too. It’s low key one of the
most compelling rematches in women’s MMA history.
Pena-Nunes I wasn’t some sort of legendary encounter that you just
can’t wait to see again, like Zhang Weili-
Joanna
Jedrzejczyk. Pena didn’t look good in the first round, and
Nunes didn’t look good in the second. What makes the rematch
intriguing is instead the stakes involved. Nunes’ six unbeaten
years from 2015 to 2021 constituted far and away the most
impressive run any female MMA fighter has ever enjoyed. Pena ended
that. If Pena isn’t able to win again, it will undo some of the
relevance of the original win. If Nunes can’t win the rematch, it
will end her status as the queen of MMA.
Unfortunately, many of the women’s bouts that most called for
rematches never saw those rematches come to fruition.
Cristiane
“Cyborg” Justino-
Gina Carano
captured more fan excitement than any women’s bout to that point
and was exciting while it lasted, as well. Unfortunately, Carano
went into acting and never fought again.
Holly Holm’s
knockout of
Ronda
Rousey was one of the biggest upsets in MMA history, and fans
would have been hot to see if Rousey with a different game plan
could have changed things in the rematch. Instead, Rousey’s next
fight was a quick knockout loss to Nunes, and she left for the
world of professional wrestling.
More recently, Nunes’ stunning 51 second knockout of “Cyborg”
appeared to be a passing of the torch. Since then, Justino has gone
6-0 and demonstrated some of the best technique of her career,
leaving open the question of what a fight between the two would
look like were not “Cyborg” rocked in the opening seconds. The hope
for that potential legacy-defining rematch remains unfulfilled. In
each of these cases, the original result stands alone. Nunes will
have the opportunity to add another data point to the
conversation.
Nunes isn’t as wide of a favorite as she was for the first fight,
but she remains a strong 3-1 favorite and it’s not hard to
understand why. Not only does she have the much stronger overall
resume, but the first Pena-Nunes bout was a strange one. Nunes
looked like the better fighter in the first round. She landed hard
leg kicks, dropped Pena with a straight right hand, got her back in
a scramble and won the round on all three judges’ scorecards. For
those picking Nunes to win, there wasn’t much in the first round to
create doubt about that prognostication.
Then the second round arrived, which functioned as something of a
Rorschach test when it came to Nunes’ performance. To many, it was
the return of cardio problems that plagued Nunes earlier in her
career. After spending a lot of energy in the first round, she
started getting hit by shots that didn’t seem particularly crisp in
their execution. Nunes herself noted that she had a subpar camp,
rebounding from getting COVID-19 and hampered by knee injuries that
prevented her from training properly.
Still, there was reason not to buy that it was a cardio issue.
Nunes did not look weathered at the beginning of the round, and the
decline in her performance came after she started eating some
strong punches. Pena turning the tide with her strikes would likely
be the dominant narrative watching the fight were it not for Nunes’
history of endurance issues. The ambiguity about what happened in
that second round is a big part of the curiosity surrounding the
second fight.
Regardless of the cause of what happened to Nunes in the second
round, history suggests it might not matter. When a great MMA
fighter goes on a streak of dominance, an aura of invincibility
develops around them. When they finally lose, that illusion
shatters and opponents approach them differently. Additional losses
often follow in rapid succession.
Many were quick to write off
Anderson
Silva’s loss to
Chris
Weidman. Silva was clowning, he got caught and he’ll learn his
lesson, the thinking went. He would lose six of his next eight
bouts.
Fedor
Emelianenko made a mistake thinking
Fabricio
Werdum was rocked and dove into Werdum’s guard recklessly. Few
made all that much of it. Emelianenko would get stopped in his next
two appearances, though—the longest losing streak of his career.
Some viewed
Chuck
Liddell’s knockout loss to
Quinton
Jackson at UFC 71 as a flash deal that was an outlier. He would
lose five of his next six fights. Nunes going on a losing streak
feels improbable right now, but there is a track record of the MMA
world being surprised when a great fighter follows their first loss
in ages with even more losses.
The
UFC
277 main event is a potential pivot point for both fighters.
The strong consequences built into the result either way make it
stand out. Nunes’ legacy is secure, but her future is the big
question.