UFC 300 odds, pick and prediction: The only bet for Holly Holm vs. Kayla Harrison 

Holly Holm vs. Kayla Harrison Odds

Holm's been in MMA long enough to note that her boxing and kickboxing stints are well in the past, but they serve as her base to this day. That will make for an interesting approach against Harrison, a 2012 and 2016 Olympic gold medalist in judo, the same discipline in which Ronda Rousey scored bronze at the 2008 games.

Harrison was a terror in PFL and, at one point, the fight promotion's most dominant competitor prior to a shocking upset loss to Larissa Pacheco in a PFL lightweight tournament final in November 2022.

Harrison had beaten Pacheco twice by unanimous decision three years prior in 2019 – including that year's lightweight tournament final.

Since then, Harrison decisioned Aspen Ladd in November at a 150-pound catchweight by three scores of 49-46 each.

Tale of the Tape

Holm famously knocked out Rousey in November 2015. However, since then, she's 5-6, though she's at least won three of her last four going back to January 2020. Her defeat to Ketlen Vieira in May 2022 was a debatable split decision, and she lost despite nearly doubling Vieira in significant strikes.

Holm suffered a submission loss to Mayra Bueno-Silva this past July, but it was overturned after she tested positive for ritalinic acid. She fought four months prior, beating Yana Santos by a shutout unanimous decision.

Also of note, both ladies are 5-foot-8, but we have two distinct advantages that could tilt the power balance in either direction.

Holm has the reach advantage at 69 inches to Harrison's just 66 inches. However, Harrison will not only have the strength edge, but youth will be on her side. She's still just 33 whereas Holm is 42.

Holm vs. Harrison Pick

My biggest concern with this fight isn't the age difference; it's the weight cut.

Regarding that, here's what Harrison said earlier this year.

“There’s a misperception out there that I walk around at like 180 pounds or something,” Harrison told KevinIole.com. “I have walked around most of my MMA career at 165, 160 (pounds) because I don’t like cutting weight. I don’t believe in cutting weight. I don’t think it sends the right message to kids. That being said, I don’t agree with this, but sometimes you have to show up and do things you don’t agree with in order to make your dreams come true. The whole time I was (in the PFL), I walked around at 165, maybe 160, and so not only was I usually the smaller fighter with less experience, I was getting in the cage with girls who were getting in there at 180, 175 pounds."

Taking her word for it, it's still a roughly 30-pound cut. She said a test cut went well, but until I see it with my own eyes, I can't buy into her current odds.

So the pick is this: An early play on Holm on the moneyline at +360. But keep it small for now.

Before Harrison and Holm hit the scale, I can't play a -480 favorite – who's facing a weight cut of possibly 30 or so pounds – against a live 'dog. I don't care how old or weathered Holm is.

Pre-weigh-in, it's Holm or nothing for me.

Enjoy the fight and don't go broke.

The Pick: Holly Holm (+360 at BetRivers)