UFC 316 – Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley: Preview & Betting Tips

The Georgian took O’Malley down eight times in their first fight and spent over 10 minutes in control, neutralising the former champ’s striking and rhythm. Merab’s chin held up when tested, and his fifth-round stumble was the only real scare. So, on paper, he looks certain to defend his title again. However, rematches don’t always go the same way as the first bout.

For O’Malley, an improved takedown defence and urgency off his back will be crucial. O’Malley can’t afford to lose rounds with inactivity on the mat like he did last time. If his defensive grappling holds up and his offense flows earlier, the rematch could look very different.

That being said, we know just how difficult it is to stick to your gameplan when Merab is constantly coming forward and shooting in for takedown after takedown from minute one until minute 25.

One of the American’s favourite techniques is the calf kick, but against a wrestler, he may be reluctant to throw it in case Merab times it and catches it like he did in the first fight. Therefore, it may be wise for O’Malley to throw more knees and uppercuts, an attack up the middle that may be a deterrent and stop Merab from shooting in as much.

Dvalishvili vs O’Malley: Prediction & Betting Tips

The champion is the deserved favourite based on their first meeting and his recent impressive form of wins over: Petr Yan, Jose Aldo, Henry Cejudo, O’Malley and Nurmagomedov, but O’Malley has the tools to flip the script especially if his takedown defence holds up.

There really isn’t that much value in taking Merab Dvalishvili to win via decision at 1.67 odds, even though that is the most likely outcome. I’m looking for value in this one and Sean O’Malley to win via KO/TKO or DQ at odds of 10.50 (V Bet) is worth a small stake.

I’m particularly looking at O’Malley KO/TKO (5.00 – in general) because logic says: if it goes long, the fight is Dvalishvili’s to win. Plus, the champion has been very vocal this week about his weight cut struggles, so that could play a part in Merab’s ability to absorb O’Malley’s big shots.