UFC 316 Preview and Prediction: Kevin Holland – Vicente Luque

Kicking off the main card tomorrow night at UFC 316 is a welterweight matchup with a ranking on the line. 14th ranked Vicente Luque (23-10-1) will be looking to hold onto his spot as he takes on fan-favorite “The Trailblazer” Kevin Holland (27-13).

Starting with Luque, he will be looking for his second straight win. After having a 14-2 stretch inside the octagon to get himself into serious contention a few years back, Luque went through some struggles going 1-3 in his next four getting stopped twice. While only 33, that stretch felt like someone who was near the end of their career. However, Luque made a massive statement with his first round finish of Themba Gorimbo back in December.

Kevin Holland has had such an interesting career. In 2020, he became a star in the UFC’s middleweight division going 5-0 and putting himself in the mix as a top contender. However, after struggling against bigger wrestlers, he moved down to 170 where he had solid success. However, after a split decision loss to the current champion JDM and a loss to MVP, he moved back up to 185 for three fights.

He lost his last two due to the size and wrestling which forced him back down to 170. He fought Gunnar Nelson at UFC London in March and won easily once again proving that he’s better at 170 pounds. Now, he’ll look to get himself back in the rankings at 170.

UFC 316 Prediction

If there’s anything that Kevin Holland has struggled with, it’s his wrestling defense. Holland is incredibly talented with solid BJJ and really good striking with tremendous power. However, I think because he has such good jiu jitsu, he doesn’t try that hard to defend takedowns. I think that could cause him issues in this fight at UFC 316.

In Vicente Luque’s win against Rafael Dos Anjos back in 2023, he showed off really good wrestling and the ability to control a top level opponent. If Luque is able to get takedowns in this one, I think he can easily control Holland and he has the jiu jitsu to nullify the guard of Holland.

On the feet, Luque is a very good striker but I think he’ll struggle with the range and speed of Kevin Holland. That said, I think Luque is going to be able to land takedowns in this one. He’ll get enough to win a couple of rounds and win a decision.

Prediction: Vicente Luque by Decision