UFC 318 – Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov: Preview & Betting Tips

Costa made his name in the UFC by swarming opponents with relentless forward movement, heavy hooks, and a body attack that broke his opponents down. But recent performances have exposed some issues. Especially his cardio and defensive lapses. If Costa can’t adjust mid-fight, or if he fades again, it could be another tough night.

Against an accurate southpaw in Kopylov, you do not want to be a sitting duck, and that’s exactly what Costa could be if we get past the halfway stage. The Russian’s striking efficiency is one of the very best at middleweight. He doesn’t chase finishes, but he still finds them through patience and timing. He has a sharp jab and has solid kicks, especially the sneak high kick he throws with his rear leg. 

It’s tough to imagine the Brazilian can fix his cardio at this point, or else it would’ve been done by now. But one adjustment he can make is the pace he fights at; a more methodical way of fighting could help him maintain good cardio for longer.

Costa vs Kopylov: Prediction & Betting Tips

The truth is, Costa fights way too recklessly for me to even consider betting on him against a guy with elite composure and kickboxing skills in Kopylov. However, as mentioned above, a change in the way he fights will help him to manage cardio much better. Though, I’m not confident he will make this change. 

Costa has good power and accuracy, but his volume is his downfall because his gas tank cannot hold up. Meanwhile, we just saw what Kopylov can do against a volume puncher in Chris Curtis, so he can use that same gameplan to overcome his opponent in this one.

With all of this in mind, I’m taking Roman Kopylov to win in rounds 2 or 3 via KO/TKO at odds of 7.00.