UFC 319 Fight Breakdown: Welterweights Clash in Thrilling Bout

UFC 319 Fight Breakdown: The Grappling Game

Neither of these guys is known for their ground game, but it should play a small part in Saturday night’s affair at UFC 319, largely at Neal’s discretion. The American will give up two inches in height and three inches in reach against Prates, making it likely that some sort of offensive clinching is implemented into the gameplan.

When faced with a similar physical disadvantage against Machado-Garry, Neal chose to fight on the front foot, crowding the longer man and repeatedly pushing him against the cage in order to mitigate his longer reach. He never really presented a danger to Machado-Garry on the fence, choosing to try to rack up control time over actually dropping for a takedown.

However, in a prior fight with Shavkat Rakhmonov, Neal shied away from clinching at all, fearing the superior submission skills of the Kazakh fighter. This comparison should help reveal how Neal plans to approach an opponent like Prates during UFC 319 on Saturday.

Of Neal’s three matchups mentioned here, Prates is by far the worst grappler. The Brazilian showed an excellent aptitude for denying outright takedown attempts in his own matchup with Machado-Garry, defending 15 of 19 shots. A crucial difference is that Machado-Garry often chose to shoot in the middle of the Octagon while actively attempting to drag Prates down, not hold him on the fence.

No opponent has attempted to control Prates on the cage for an extended period, opening a hole in his game that Neal will try to exploit. Neal will fight on the front foot, and when he does initiate a grappling exchange, it will be a grimy, unpleasant cage-holding minute or two for both fighters.

UFC 319 Fight Breakdown: Carlos Prates

Luckily for fans, the aforementioned clinch situations should constitute only a small minority of this fight at UFC 319. The rest of the contest in the open Octagon should contain some of the most exciting, technically clean striking of the year, buoyed by an interesting stylistic matchup.

Perhaps the most important stylistic note is that both men primarily fight in a southpaw stance. Prates, a lefty himself, has not faced a pure southpaw in the UFC yet, but he still has some noticeable tendencies that have developed when opponents have switched stances. When faced with a closed stance, Prates is much more willing to pressure opponents, sometimes disregarding his reach advantage in favor of stepping forward while increasing his volume.

Additionally, his leg kicks become especially potent because of their natural target of the outside part of his opponent’s leg. As always, though, there is a give and take, with the closed stance partially nullifying Prates’ rear kicks to the head and body, as well as the rear knee responsible for finishing Charlie Radtke.

Further hurting the Brazilian is the fact that his best strike, his cross, will have a tougher time landing against another lefty. Despite his length, Prates is not a jab-heavy fighter, instead choosing to wait and sprinkle a few right hands in while waiting for an opening to throw his power shots. The closed stance, once again, makes it more difficult to find the mark for one of his best weapons.

UFC 319: Fight Breakdown: Geoff Neal

Naturally, Neal should benefit in a number of ways from fighting out of a closed stance. Prates’ increased pressure should help him close the distance while opening windows for the American’s best shots, his looping hooks. When that distance is closed, Prates has shown a tendency to rely on his length and a defensive shell. He will try to pull his head out of danger while leaving his hands low to defend his body, a tactic that is fine in kickboxing range but a potentially deadly mistake in the pocket. Neal has the power to capitalize on that mistake, especially if it happens multiple times.

Outside of the collisions in the pocket, Neal will have a hard time finding an offensive rhythm. He often chooses to blitz out of his high guard, firing long combinations while steaming forward to account for his short reach. Against Prates, a fantastic counter-striker who consistently lands moving backwards before finding creative ways to angle off, that tendency should be a problem in UFC 319.

At distance, Neal will find himself peppered with front kicks to the body and a jab thrown with increasing frequency, seeing as Machado-Garry was able to penetrate the high guard time and time again with his lead hand. The closed stance, while primarily beneficial, does hurt Neal by opening the door for Prates’ leg kicks, a natural counter to his boxing-heavy stance.

The American has several defensive disadvantages here, but none so large that they seem likely to end in Neal’s first knockout loss in the UFC.

UFC 319: Fight Breakdown: Final Prediction

This fight at UFC 319 will be closer than the betting odds predict it to be. The outcome will hinge on the game plans implemented by each fighter’s cornermen. If Prates is able to restrain his aggression against southpaw fighters and pick at Neal from a distance, rely on his counterstriking, and avoid trying to knock out a guy who has been KOed once in 22 fights, he should win on the scorecards.

More than likely, though, Prates will continue to do what has made him so popular in the UFC: go for the kill. That should allow Neal to land a plethora of big shots in the pocket, resulting in a late finish.

Final Prediction: Geoff Neal by KO, Rd. 3