UFC Sacramento Predictions

This week, the UFC is continuing its trend of revisiting arenas they haven’t been to since 2019. Last week, UFC 330 touched down in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, now the UFC travels all the way across the country for a fight night in Sacramento, California. 

Headlining the card are two top-15 middleweights as Anthony Hernandez looks to rebound from his loss earlier this year against Gregory Rodrigues, who is currently on a three-fight win streak. The rest of the card features names like Serghei Spivac, Reinier De Ridder, and Roman Dolidze. 

Is Gregory Rodrigues ready for the middleweight elite? 

Are the best days for Reinier De Ridder still ahead of him at light heavyweight? 

Is Vitor Petrino a true heavyweight contender? 

UFC Sacramento Predictions

Those are all questions that this piece will aim to answer as I will predict every fight on this weekend’s fight night card and provide a breakdown for each fight.  

Shanelle Dyer (7-1) vs Elise Reed (8-5)

Pick: Shanelle Dyer

This fight is set up to start the card with a finish as Shanelle Dyer may already be one of the most violent strawweight fighters on the planet, and her opponent Elise Reed has five professional losses, all by finish. Reed has a well-rounded skill set, but she is going to be at a significant speed and power disadvantage.

The only way Reed could pull off the massive upset is by controlling this fight against the fence or on the mat, but considering the strength gap, that feels improbable. More likely, Dyer overwhelms Reed with strikes and knocks her out.

Jackson McVey (7-2) vs Wes Schultz (9-3)

Pick: Jackson McVey 

Surprisingly, these two have actually fought before, as they met in an amateur MMA bout in 2020 where Wes Schultz came out on top via first-round submission. This time, a different outcome seems more likely. 

While McVey will seemingly never be a top contender, he has still gotten much better since his first fight with Schultz. On the feet he will have a distinct striking advantage, and even if Schultz tries to close the distance McVey has strong pocket bowing and clinch knees. The pick is that McVey drops Schultz with a close shot and then jumps on a submission and finishes the fight. 

Gauge Young (11-3) vs Stan Dorsainvil (5-0)

Pick: Gauge Young 

Sometimes in preliminary fights like this, the most valuable skill a fighter can have is experience. The debuting Stan Dorsainvil has proven in his short professional career that he is talented both in terms of striking and grappling, but has yet to face anyone with the level of experience or talent as Gauge Young.

Over the last two years, Young has been in closely contested fights with UFC veterans Quillan Salkilld, Evan Elder, Maheshate, and Thiago Moises, and has come out with a 2-2 record. With the talent that Dorsainvil has shown it is possible that he may be ready for the big show already but making a short-notice debut against a solid UFC veteran seems like an unreasonable ask. I expect the first round to be close but Young should take over in the second half and win a decision. 

Marcio Barbosa (18-2) vs Ryan Kuse (9-2) 

Pick: Marcio Barbosa

This has the potential to be a very fun fight as long as it lasts considering both fighters are pressure-based strikers. The main difference between the two, and the reason Marcio Barbosa is a 10-1 favorite, is the staunch power gap.

Ryan Kuse has talent but he is a natural bantamweight and is now moving up a weight class to fight one of the hardest punchers featherweight has seen since Ilia Topuria. Unfortunately for Kuse, this fight is going to last all of two minutes and it will end with him unconscious on the canvas. 

Nasrat Haqparast (18-6) vs Chris Padilla (17-6-1)

Pick: Chris Padilla

To make this plain and simple, this is going to be a war. Both of these men like to fight inside the pocket and are not afraid to eat a shot to land a few of their own. Unfortunately for Nasrat Haqparast, this came back to bite him in his bout with Quillan Salkilld nine months ago where he was on the wrong end of one of the best knockouts of the year. 

Now he faces Chris Padilla, and while he might not possess the same one-punch power as Salkilld, he is known for causing significant superficial damage with elbows inside. The momentum heading into this fight also favors Padilla as he came off a draw that should have been a win in his last fight which would have made him 5-0 inside the octagon. Despite the draw the UFC is giving him a step up and I think he rises to the occasion and does more damage over 15 minutes to win a close decision. 

Shamil Gaziev (14-3) vs Kennedy Nzechukwu (18-6-1)

Pick: Shamil Gaziev 

At this point it is pretty clear the type of fighter that Shamil Gaziev is, he is someone who disposes of low-level UFC heavyweights but gets beaten by above-average ones. That means that this comes down to whether you think Nzechukwu could be a top-15 heavyweight, and personally I don’t.

On his way up Nzechukwu showed flashes of greatness, notably knocking out Carlos Ulberg, but the rest of his career has been disappointing and inconsistent. He has gone nearly two years without a win, and that was over Lukasz Brzeski. Gaziev has proven himself as a good boxer who can also smother his opponents against the fence, while you can’t be confident in anything Nzechukwu does. The pick is that Gaziev smothers Nzechukwu for the majority of the first round before finishing him with punches in the second. 

Jamall Emmers (22-8) vs Lerryan Douglas (14-5) 

Pick: Lerryan Douglas

Jamall Emmers is one of the most perennially disrespected fighters in the UFC and when I saw he was a three-to-one underdog I thought immediately about picking the upset, but then I remembered they gave him the boogeyman. Lerryan Douglas is special. 

His 14-5 record is incredibly deceptive as he is not the same fighter who lost fights early in his career. Now he is one of the most dangerous strikers in the UFC and has both the speed and power to beat anyone in the world. Emmers is the toughest of outs, but I can’t pick against a blue-chip talent like Douglas. 

Anthony Wint (7-0) vs Terrance Chatman (5-1)

Pick: Anthony Wint

Is there really any explanation needed for this pick? If you watched the first week of season 10 of Dana White’s Contender Series, you realize the kind of athlete that Anthony Wint is and the level of power he possesses. There is a reason he is fighting 11 days later, and it’s because the UFC wants to showcase his talent. 

Terrance Chatman isn’t awful, but like many heavyweights, he is nowhere near the athlete Wint is. Outside of a puncher’s chance, there is a conceivable path to victory for Chatman. The pick is that Wint overwhelms Chatman very early, takes him down, and finishes the fight with ground strikes. 

Carli Judice (6-2) vs Jeisla Chaves (7-0) 

Pick: Jeisla Chaves 

I’ll start by addressing the elephant in the room, yes Carli Judice is a massive favorite and yes I am still going out on a limb and taking Jeisla Chaves. There is a solid bit of hype around Judice and when you watch her strike, but that doesn’t mean that her weaknesses should be ignored. 

At the end of Judice’s last fight with Juliana Miller, she struggled when Miller started to pressure her, and once she was put on her back she was almost finished. This third round exposed an easy target for the undefeated Chaves to target. If Chaves tries to fight at range she is going to get picked apart, but if she gets in the face of Judice this is a very winnable fight for her.

MarQuel Mederos (11-1-1) vs Mason Jones (18-2)

Pick: Mason Jones 

Add another fight to the list of potential fight of the night candidates on this card as MarQuel Mederos and Mason Jones are both unafraid to throw caution to the wind and go to war. While both enjoy a violent fight, Mason Jones throws with far more volume along with proving to be durable and having strong cardio. 

The other key factor in this fight is that Jones fights at a furious pace and is always looking to push his opponent back, and Mederos does not like being put on his back foot. Mederos is also not a strong wrestler so he will have to fight fire with fire on the feet with Jones. “The Dragon” should be the one dictating the pace of this fight and should do enough damage to win a decision. 

Reinier De Ridder (21-4) vs Roman Dolidze (15-5) 

Pick: Reinier De Ridder 

This isn’t a hot take but this is my lock of the night. There was no reason that Reinier De Ridder should have ever been fighting at middleweight considering how depleted he had to be to get down to 185 pounds. At light heavyweight, De Ridder could be a total force. His ground game is devastating both in terms of striking ability and submission ability. He will also still be tall and long at light heavyweight which will allow him to hold his own on his feet.

In his first light heavyweight bout, he gets an easy warm-up as he doesn’t even have to fight another light heavyweight. Instead, he gets to fight Roman Dolidze, a natural middleweight who is smaller than he is. De Ridder should have won this fight at middleweight, but at light heavyweight, where his cardio should be significantly better he will dominate. 

#6 Serghei Spivac (18-6) vs Vitor Petrino (14-2)

Pick: Serghei Spivac

In the co-main event, the UFC is trying to push a new heavyweight contender as they give Vitor Petrino an opportunity to enter the top 10.  To do that he has to get past perennial contender Serghei Spivac. If Spivac had not fought Ante Delija I may have gone with Petrino, but after seeing how sharp he looked in his last fight I think he defends his ranking. 

Petrino is coming off a sloppy war with Steven Asplund, and while he came out on top, Asplund hurt him badly several times. Now he meets Spivac who is a big step up from Asplund and despite his large frame, moves quicker than you might think. Spivac should hold his own on the feet but he will have a distinct advantage in the grappling department. This may not be the most entertaining fight in the world but Spivac should mother Petrino and win this fight.

#6 Anthony Hernandez (15-3) vs #11 Gregory Rodrigues (19-6)

Pick: Gregory Rodrigues

18 months ago Gregory Rodrigues got an opportunity to main event a fight night against Jared Cannonier in hopes of cementing himself as a legitimate middleweight title contender, but he came up short. Now he gets a similar opportunity against Anthony Hernandez who is looking to rebound from a loss to UFC middleweight champion Sean Strickland earlier this year. 

Before that loss, Hernandez was running through everyone left and right, but outside of a win over Brendon Allen, much of his resume is not all that impressive. Roman Dolidze, Michel Pereira, and Roman Kopylov are all fighters I hold in a much lower regard than Rodrigues. Along with that Hernandez is going to be at a massive size and strength disadvantage. 

Rodrigues has been tough to take down throughout his career, and if Hernandez can’t get this fight to the mat quickly he is going to be in deep trouble. Strickland seemingly exposed the best pathway to defeating Hernandez which is targeting his body. If Strickland, someone not known for their power, can put Hernandez away with a body shot, Rodrigues can do the same thing. I don’t expect Hernandez to show up in significantly better shape so for that reason I am siding with the underdog in Rodrigues to finish Hernandez and come close to the top five.