UFC Shanghai Predictions: Song vs. Nurmagomedov

As the UFC looks to expand its Asian outreach and its Road to the UFC tournament, multiple trips to China each year are becoming a regular occurrence, and this marks the second stop of 2026. 

This card is quite odd as it has one of the best main events of the year but overall lacks quality fights. 

Even weirder is the placement of some fights as some of the best fights on the card are buried on the prelims.

What that does though is further prove why it is important to predict the entire card as skipping over the prelims means missing some of the best fights. 

UFC Shanghai Predictions 

This article will break down, analyze, and predict every fight on the UFC’s 2026 farewell to China.

Meng Ding (35-10) vs Cam Nelson (7-1) 

Pick: Cam Nelson 

Kicking off the card is a native Chinese fighter in Meng Ding, who fought at the first UFC event in China this year back in May, as he looks to get his first UFC win by ruining the debut of Cam Nelson. Both of these fighters have questionable resumes but after seeing Ding’s lackluster performance against a lower-level prospect in Jose Souza, I am willing to take a flier on the debutant. 

Nelson has the striking skills to compete with Ding and has been streaking recently, and while he may not have the same experience as Ding he has also taken far less damage. I think this ends up being a back-and-forth striking affair where the ever-improving Nelson catches Ding and ends the fight via TKO.

Jingnan Xiong (19-3) vs Julia Polastri (14-6)

Pick: Jingnan Xiong 

Normally, I am not a man of second chances in the sport of MMA, but in this case, I am going to give Jingnan Xiong a second chance. Before her fight with Angela Hill, she was away from action for over a year and making her UFC debut in front of her home country, which is a lot of pressure. 

Now she gets a step down in Julia Polastri, a 2-3 UFC veteran whose best win is over an aging Karolina Kowalkiewicz. If Xiong is even remotely the fighter she was in ONE Championship, she should pull off the upset  

Lawrence Lui (8-1) vs Hector Santiago (6-1) 

Pick: Lawrence Lui

After introducing himself to the UFC World back in January when he won the Bantamweight side of the Road to the UFC tournament, Lawrence Lui makes his official UFC debut here. While Lui isn’t the perfect UFC prospect, this is a good matchup for him. 

Where Lui thrives is on the mat, and less than a year ago Hector Santiago was submitted by a regional journeyman. On the feet Santiago may have the advantage but unless his grappling has drastically improved he will get dominated on the mat. The pick here is that Lui ragdolls Santiago for nearly all of the fight and wins by decision.

Jack Jenkins (14-4) vs Sean Woodson (13-2-1)

Pick: Sean Woodson

This was one of the fights I was referring to when I said earlier that some of the best fights on the card were buried on the prelims. Both Jack Jenkins and Sean Woodson are very good unranked featherweights and are normally good for an entertaining fight. Australia’s Jenkins is known for being scrappy, but sometimes heart isn’t enough to overcome physical advantages. 

There have been some crazy reach differentials in UFC fights, but 10 inches may be the biggest I have seen. Sometimes reach is overrated when a fighter doesn’t know how to effectively use it  but for a boxer like Woodson it should be significant. Woodson should keep this at range and pick Jenkins apart from range, winning a decision.

Long Xiao (27-11) vs Francesco Nuzzi (11-2)

Pick: Long Xiao

After two fights in a row without a Chinese fighter on the card, the next one seems like a setup for a hometown win. This pick is less about Long Xiao as it is about Francesco Nuzzi. 

11-2 is not a terrible pro record by any means, but there are a lot of other blemishes on the record of Nuzzi. Outside of those two losses, he has two no contests due to accidental fouls, but in both fights he was getting beaten up. Despite his game plan being based around striking, he is very hittable and often takes damage in his fights. His losses have also shown he struggles off his back as both came by submission.

Xiao is never going to be a top contender in the UFC, but he can be a nuisance to fight. Xiao is known to pressure his opponent and considering Nuzzi’s tendency to be hit he could take a lot of damage in this fight. I will give Nuzzi the benefit of the doubt because he has never been knocked out, but I think this will be an ugly decision loss for him. 

Rei Tsuruya (11-1) vs Kevin Borjas (11-5) 

Pick: Rei Tsuruya

Kevin Borjas seemed like he was on the verge of being cut before his most recent fight, but after pulling off a massive upset against Andre Lima he is scheduled for another bout, but once again as a heavy underdog. This time he takes on one of Japan’s top young talents in Rei Tsuruya whose wrestling alone should allow him to dominate this fight. 

Borjas is not a terrible grappler but you need to be better than “not terrible” to survive against Tsuruya. Unless Borjas turns a corner and is now a legitimate top 20 flyweight he is going to spend the majority of this fight on his back. I have to assume that if Tsuruya can get Borjas on his back he can also submit him, so the pick is that Tsuruya takes the back of Borjas and taps him out. 

Andre Lima (11-1) vs Namsari Batbayar (10-1) 

Pick: Namsari Batbayar 

Before his fight with Kevin Borjas, Andre Lima was viewed as one of the most highly regarded prospects in the flyweight division. This makes it no surprise that Lima comes as a decently large favorite against the debuting Batbayar. While there is a chance that Lima’s loss to Borjas was a bit of a fluke and a result of ring rust, it also seems likely that Borjas exposed some holes in Lima’s game that Batbayar is primed to exploit. 

Up until fighting Borjas, Lima did not have to deal with much pressure, and when he did struggled. Borjas noted this and kept Lima on his back foot for a lot of the fight which resulted in Lima’s first professional loss. Like Borjas, Batbayar is also at his best as a pressure fighter which should cause Lima problems. Lima certainly has the technical advantages to win this fight but if Batbayar forces this fight to take place in the pocket he should be the one doing more damage and win via decision. ‘

Bilal Hasan (9-0) vs Nilson Rojas (9-0)

Pick: Bilal Hasan

Kicking off the main card is one of the biggest stars from the first week of Dana White’s Contender Series, Bilal Hasan. Just over two weeks following his first-round knockout win over Mridul Saikia he will make his UFC debut against fellow undefeated prospect Nilson Rojas. 

Peru’s Rojas is a definitively harder matchup for Hasan than Saikia as Rojas has proven to fight behind a good pressure boxing style that can make anyone uncomfortable. The problem is, he is fighting a rising superstar who can do everything well. If Hasan decides to fight a pocket boxing fight with Rojas, then the underdog is live to win, but if he looks to use his superior kicking to keep this at range or to take this fight to the ground, he should finish this fight quickly. 

Levi Rodrigues (5-1) vs Ce Liu (3-1) 

Pick: Ce Liu

The newest addition to the list of former kickboxing stars to make the transition to the UFC roster is China’s Ce Liu. For his debut, the UFC has set him up perfectly as he gets a fellow striker with virtually no ability to expose Liu’s ground game that can be best described as a work in progress. 

Levi Rodrigues will almost certainly try to keep this fight on its feet which will eventually lead to trouble. Liu is the far more technical striker and hits with a ton of power, so if Liu attacks the body he can open Rodrigues up to land a knockout blow and end this fight early in front of his home crowd. 

#11 Alex Perez (26-10) vs Sumudaerji (19-7)

Pick: Sumudaerji

We saw about a round-and-a-half of this fight less than three months ago before a groin strike resulted in the fight being declared a no-contest. Leading up to the stoppage though Sumudaerji was effectively using his range to pick Alex Perez apart, and I am not sure what changes now. 

Momentum will tell you that Alex Perez is on the downslide of his career while Sumudaerji is realizing his potential, and sometimes you have to listen to momentum. This fight should look a lot like what we saw in the first one as Perez tries to crash the pocket but Sumudaerji uses superior footwork to evade and land strikes from range to earn a decision victory. 

Aoriqileng (26-13) vs Kai Asakura (22-6)

Pick: Kai Asakura

After starting a disappointing 0-2 at flyweight after being brought into the UFC, former Rizin superstar Kai Asakura made his bantamweight debut back in May where he eviscerated Cameron Smotherman. Now, he gets a step up against bantamweight’s kill-or-be-killed veteran, Aoriqileng. 

China’s Aoriqileng has been successful as an underdog before due to his combination of pressure and power, but that is typically against low to mid-level fighters. Despite Askaura’s disappointing start I still feel as though he can be a real contender at bantamweight. If that is the case he should be able to avoid trouble early in this fight and take advantage of the openings Aoriquileng leaves for him resulting in a stunning knockout win for Asakura. 

#4 Xiaonan Yan (19-5) vs #14 Denise Gomes (12-3) 

Pick: Xiaonan Yan

The only way that Xiaonan Yan should lose this fight is if she has taken a drastic decline since her last fight. While she is only 1-2 in her last three, those losses came to recent title challenger Virna Jandiroba and former champion Weili Zhang, arguably two of the three best strawweights on the planet. Now she takes a major step down against Denise Gomes who, despite being on a four-fight win streak, has experience against no one near the level of Yan.

The only people who have found success taking Yan to the mat have been the best grapplers in the division which Gomes does not qualify as. If this fight stays on the feet, it’s tough to see how Gomes technically out-strikes someone as skilled and experienced as Yan especially considering this fight is in China.  

Umar Nurmagomedov (20-1) vs Yadong Song (23-9-1)

Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov

It is no surprise to see China’s biggest star back in the main event spot in his home country but to please the crowd he will have to pull off a major upset by becoming the second person to defeat Umar Nurmagomedov. While this would be a spectacular moment it feels incredibly unlikely. 

The only thing that Song does better than Nurmagomedov is close-range boxing. If for whatever reason Nurmagomedov tries to brawl then yes, Song certainly has a chance to land a clean punch and finish the fight, but if Nurmagomedov fights smart then it is tough to see a path to victory for Song. 

From range, Nurmagomedov is a strong kicker which he uses to set up his wrestling entries, and while Song is a good wrestler in his own right, he is not of the same caliber as Nurmagomedov. I think Nurmagomedov can effectively use body and leg kicks to weaken Song before taking him down and controlling the fight resulting in a decision win for one of Dagestan’s best fighters.