UFC St. Louis odds, picks, projections: 3 best bets for ESPN Fight Night for Sat. 5/11

Billy Goff vs. Trey Waters

By Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 4:55 p.m. ET

I projected Trey Waters closer to a -200 favorite (66.7% implied odds) in this welterweight matchup with Billy Goff, and I would bet his moneyline up to around -185.

Waters (-170) has a grappling deficiency – and some opponents will prove a bad matchup for him. However, Goff (+138) prefers to brawl and relies on his durability and toughness to weather the storm against opponents.

Waters is the more prominent athlete (7" taller, 5" reach advantage) and the more well-rounded fighter.

Not all tall fighters make the most of their length; still, Waters has blended his size and striking together, fighting behind a long jab on the perimeter of the cage.

Goff will press forward and apply pressure, but unless he can corral Waters against the fence or consolidate takedowns – and smother his opponent's limbs – he'll lose minutes on the scorecards against a longer, more technical striker.

The Pick: Trey Waters (-165 at Caesars)

Tabatha Ricci vs. Tecia Pennington

By Tony Sartori, Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:25 p.m. ET

Saturday's UFC preliminary card features a strawweight bout between the No. 11-ranked contender Tabatha Ricci (-138) and unranked Tecia Pennington. Ricci (=112) opened as a -156 favorite and has since been bet down to -138, but I think the market is overreacting to a line that probably opened a bit too wide.

Pennington is a distinguished veteran who has been around for more than a decade, and she has been in the cage with some of the best MMA fighters of this generation. I don't want to take anything away from her; she is extremely tough and is surely capable of securing a victory in this spot.

However, as she nears her 35th birthday, I think her fighting prime is behind her. Anytime Pennington has faced higher-level competition (a description I would use for Ricci) over the past six years, she has fallen short.

She has lost five of her past eight fights, all by decision. On the other hand, her three wins have come against Angela Hill, Sam Hughes and Brianna Fortino.

Hill is the only ranked fighter out of those three names, and she is a mere 4-6 over her past 10 fights. Yes, Ricci is also coming off a loss, but Loopy Godinez, the current No. 10-ranked contender, is not a bad loss.

Oddsmakers unquestionably think the judges' input will be needed, given that the "fight goes the distance prop" is currently listed as wide as -350. In a 15-minute bout, I would much rather back the younger, more athletic Ricci at this stage of their respective careers.

There are also just more ways Ricci can look good for the judges in this fight, given her ability to mix in a ground game along with her striking.

The Pick: Tabatha Ricci by Decision (+130 at FanDuel)

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Robelis Despaigne

By Billy Ward, Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 6:55 p.m. ET

I’ve been on Robelis Despaigne all week, jumping on his -180 moneyline in my UFC Luck Ratings based on the (correct) assumption that the line would move heavily his way. He’s now -250 or higher throughout the industry. Don’t worry if you missed it, though; we still have an opportunity to bet the Cuban phenom.

For some reason, books have been slow to adjust his knockout odds. “Big Boy” has won all five of his fights the exact same way, and all within the first round. The last four have taken a combined 39 seconds.

The taekwondo Olympian has been training MMA for only a year or two, relying entirely on his striking background and physical gifts thus far. It’s extremely difficult to see him winning a 15-minute decision, and I doubt he has either the ability or desire to win this one with his grappling.

Those flaws could be exploited down the line against better heavyweights, but Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+198) is unlikely to do so against Despaigne (-250). “Salsa Boy” is another big, athletic heavyweight with limited skills, and he’s never landed a takedown in the UFC. Problem is, Despaigne is bigger, faster, and more powerful.

I wouldn’t hate the idea of betting Despaigne’s knockout prop and Cortes-Acosta’s moneyline at +205 as well. Despaigne’s knockout prop should be his moneyline, so it’s essentially a free arbitrage opportunity.

However, I like this matchup enough for Despaigne that I’m willing to take a stand.

The Pick: Robelis Despaigne by KO -170 (FanDuel)