UFC Vegas 106 Main Event Preview and Prediction: Gilbert Burns – Michael Morales

Tomorrow night the UFC is back in The APEX with a big time welterweight showcase headlining the card. Former welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns (22-8) will try to turn back the clock and become the first man to defeat top prospect Michael Morales (17-0).

Starting with Burns, he turns 39 in a couple of months and has openly said that he knows his career is coming to an end. Burns found himself in a title eliminator against Belal Muhammad back in 2023 but lost that fight to Muhammad and suffered a shoulder injury during the fight. He returned against current champion Jack Della Maddalena and looked like he was going to win before getting stopped in the third round. He last fought in September losing to Sean Brady.

Now, he’ll look to avoid a fourth straight loss against arguably the division’s top prospect. Michael Morales earned a UFC contract on The Contender Series back in 2021. Since earning that contract, he’s gone 5-0 inside the octagon and his last win came back in August when he stopped Neil Magny in the first round.

UFC Vegas 106 Prediction

Gilbert Burns is a massive underdog and it’s easy to see why. At this stage of his career, it’s a little hard for me to find his path to victory in this matchup. Burns is going to look much smaller in the cage and he doesn’t possess that same speed and explosion that he did when he originally surged up the ranks at 170.

Burns was able to do well against Jack Della Maddalena because of his wrestling. He’s not going to outwrestle Michael Morales who is a national wrestling champion. On the feet, I think the length is going to be a big issue as well for Burns. Unless he gets caught with something big and unexpected, I think this is Michael Morales’ fight to lose at UFC Vegas 106.

If he wants to wrestle, I see him taking Burns down and controlling him. If he wants to strike, I see him being able to outland Burns from range. I see Burns fading as the fight goes on and Morales picks up a stoppage in the middle rounds.

Prediction: Michael Morales by TKO – Round 3