UFC Vegas 107: Blanchfield vs. Barber: Best Bets and Parlays

UFC Vegas 107 Main Event: Erin Blanchfield vs. Maycee Barber

The Matchup Analysis

This flyweight bout features two of the division’s rising contenders. Both fighters come into this bout with contrasting styles. Erin Blanchfield (13-2) represents the technical grappling side of modern MMA, while Maycee Barber (14-2) brings explosive striking and improved wrestling defense.

Blanchfield has established herself as one of the most complete grapplers in the flyweight division ahead of UFC Vegas 107. Her submission game is elite. She’s shown remarkable improvement in her striking, using it primarily to set up takedowns and control positions. Her cardio and pace are exceptional, often wearing down opponents over three rounds.

Barber, nicknamed “The Future,” has lived up to her potential after some early career setbacks. Her knockout power at 125 pounds is rare, and she’s developed into a more patient, strategic striker. Her takedown defense has improved significantly, and she’s shown the ability to stuff takedown attempts from strong wrestlers. She’s also riding a six-fight win streak in the Octagon.

The Betting Angle

This fight presents an interesting stylistic clash that could go either way. Blanchfield is favored due to her consistent performances and superior grappling advantage, but Barber’s knockout power makes her a live underdog. It’s also important to remember this will be Blanchfield’s second five-round fight and only the first for Barber.

Best Bet: Erin Blanchfield Money line (-238)

Both fighters have shown excellent cardio and durability. Blanchfield typically wins by grinding out decisions or submissions, while Barber has become more measured in her approach. This has the makings of a competitive affair, but Blanchfield should edge it out based on her superb performances recently against more dominant fighters.

The one blemish on Blanchfield’s UFC record is a unanimous decision loss to Manon Fiorot. Barber’s only two losses came by decision, so a -115 bet on Blanchfield by decision is also tempting. Blanchfield also brings a submission threat, with three of her last six wins coming by three different submission methods. Draft Kings has Blanchfield by decision or submission sitting at -225 odds at the moment, so the money line bet makes more sense. If you think Barber’s due to get choked out for the first time, go with Blanchfield by submission at +380 odds.

UFC Vegas 107: Co-Main Event: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Ludovit Klein

The Analysis

This lightweight clash at UFC Vegas 107 features former title challenger Mateusz Gamrot (24-3) taking on the surging Ludovit Klein (23-4-1). Gamrot is coming off a disappointing performance and needs a statement win, while Klein has been impressive in his recent UFC appearances.

Gamrot’s wrestling and pressure game make him one of the most difficult matchups in the lightweight division. His cardio is outstanding, and he consistently pushes a pace that breaks opponents. Klein brings excellent striking technique and has shown solid takedown defense in recent fights.

Best Bet: Mateusz Gamrot by Decision (-120)

Gamrot’s wrestling and pace should be too much for Klein over three rounds. While Klein has knockout power, Gamrot’s durability and grinding style make a decision victory the most likely outcome.

UFC Vegas 107: Dustin Jacoby vs. Bruno Lopes

The Matchup

Dustin Jacoby (20-9-1) faces rising prospect Bruno Lopes (14-1) in what could be a striking showcase at UFC Vegas 107 Jacoby brings extensive kickboxing experience, while Lopes has shown impressive finishing ability in his young career.

Best Bet: Bruno Lopes by TKO or Submission (+300)

Lopes’ youth and finishing rate make him an attractive bet at this price. Jacoby is durable but has been finished before, and Lopes has the tools to exploit any defensive lapses.

UFC Vegas 107: Ketlen Viera vs. Macy Chiasson

The Analysis

This women’s bantamweight bout at UFC Vegas 107 features two veterans looking to climb back into contention. Vieira (14-4) is the more experienced fighter with better striking technique, while Chiasson (10-3) brings size and wrestling ability. This fight has razor close money line odds for both fighters.

Best Bet: Ketlen Vieira by Decision (-140)

Vieira’s striking accuracy and fight IQ should give her the edge in a likely decision. Chiasson’s wrestling might cause some problems, but Vieira’s defensive grappling has improved significantly.

UFC Vegas 107 Sleeper Picks and Value Bet

Jafel Filho vs. Allan Nascimento (Flyweight)

Filho (16-3) has looked impressive in limited UFC action, while Nascimento (20-6) is a veteran with submission skills. This flyweight bout could be a grappling showcase.

Value Bet: Jafel Filho by Decision (+130)

Filho’s well-rounded game and activity level should be enough to outwork the veteran Nascimento over three rounds.

Kurt Holobaugh vs. Jordan Leavitt (Lightweight)

Holobaugh (21-9) brings veteran experience against the crafty Leavitt (11-3), who’s known for his unorthodox grappling and entertaining personality.

Best Bet: Over 2.5 Rounds (-160)

Both fighters have good cardio and have shown durability in previous fights. Leavitt’s grappling could neutralize Holobaugh’s striking, leading to a competitive decision.

UFC Vegas 107 Parlay Suggestions

Conservative Parlay (+280)

• Blanchfield by Decision
• Gamrot by Decision
• Vieira by Decision

Value Parlay (+1191)

• Erin Blanchfield Money line
• Gamrot by Decision
• Vieira Money line
• Bruno Lopes Money line