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Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista Prediction, Odds: UFC 321 Pick

Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images. Pictured: Umar Nurmagomedov

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista Prediction, Odds: UFC 321 Pick

Originally posted on Action Network  |  By Sean Zerillo  |  Last updated Oct 25, 2025 6:01 AM ET

Read for a Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista prediction for UFC 321 on Saturday, October 25, with my betting pick and prediction.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista Odds

Nurmagomedov Odds -600
Bautista Odds +450
Over/Under 2.5 (-300 / +210)
Location Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi
Bout Time 3:00 p.m. ET
TV/Streaming ESPN+
UFC 321 odds as of Saturday and via bet365. Bet on UFC 321 with our bet365 promo code.

Here’s my Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Nurmagomedov Bautista
Record 18-1-0 16-2-0
Avg. Fight Time 13:48 9:43
Height 5’8″ 5’9″
Weight (pounds) 135 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach (inches) 69″ 69″
Stance Orthodox Switch
Date of birth 1/3/1996 7/1/1993
Sig Strikes Per Min 4.38 6.13
SS Accuracy 57 49%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.15 4.45
SS Defense 60% 55%
Take Down Avg 3.26 1.67
TD Acc 39% 33%
TD Def 78% 67%
Submission Avg 0.3 0.8

Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista Pick, Prediction

If he can deny the takedowns in this matchup, Mario Bautista will undoubtedly look like a value bet against Umar Nurmagomedov in the latter’s fight since his loss to Merab Dvalishvili for 135-pound gold.

Bautista is the more efficient striker (+2.0 to +1.6 per minute) than Nurmagomedov, maintains a higher pace (7.5 to 4.7 landed per minute) and has shown that he can mix in offensive takedowns  Still, I do believe that he is a better offensive wrestler than he is defensively (68% takedown defense) and that Umar (4.4 attempts per five minutes; 91% vs. 70% control) will win a close and competitive fight here with superior grappling.

I give Umar a slight edge to win by decision (projected -166, listed -150). Still, I initially leaned toward Bautista on the point spread (+5.5, +100) in what I expect to be a relatively close and competitive matchup.

The most significant edge may be betting the fight to reach a decision (projected -285, listed -225), which you can consider straight at -257 or as a parlay piece at -277.

Projection: Nurmagomedov (84.4%)

Sean’s Pick: Fight Goes to Decision (bet to -257 or parlay to -277)

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