Are Oddsmakers Disrespecting Joey Logano's Championship Chances?

As the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs head into the Round of 8 on Sunday in the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, three-time and defending series champion Joey Logano finds himself in a very familiar situation, the perceived underdog in the championship fight with a plethora of race tracks that suit his driving style perfectly coming up.

While just about every sportsbook has Logano, who enters the Round of 8 of the Playoffs last in the Playoff Grid and 24 points below the cutline, listed in the odds as the least likely driver eligible to hoist the Bill France Cup, are the oddsmakers failing to take into account the probability of a Logano win over the next three races?

As of Saturday morning, Logano is listed at +1000 to win the NASCAR Cup Series championship on DraftKings Sportsbook, which are the longest odds of any of the eight remaining NASCAR Cup Series Playoff drivers. Ryan Blaney, Logano's Team Penske teammate, has the best odds to capture the championship according to DraftKings Sportsbook at +400.

A 37-time NASCAR Cup Series race winner, Logano thrives in this current NASCAR elimination-style Playoff format, which is expected to be altered or abandoned altogether following the 2025 season, due in large part to Logano's less-than-stellar 2024 season, which resulted in a championship. A season ago, Logano won at key moments of the Playoffs and received a timely lucky break at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval with a disqualification from fellow Playoff contender Alex Bowman, who had initially advanced to the Round of 8 of the Playoffs.

Logano comes into the Round of 8 of the Playoffs this season on the heels of back-to-back finishes of 21st at Kansas Speedway and 20th at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval, and this time around, Logano has just one win on the season through the opening 32 races. By all admissions, if we hadn't seen Logano pull off the improbable in the Playoffs before, the long odds he has been rated at would seem fitting based on the season he has had.

But now, Logano and his crew chief, Paul Wolfe, head into Las Vegas Motor Speedway, a track where Logano has four career wins, which ranks as the most among active drivers at the 1.5-mile speedway in Sin City. Last year, Logano and Wolfe utilized a gutsy fuel strategy in the final Stage of the race, which allowed them to capture the lead for the first time in the race with six laps remaining, and Logano cruised to a Championship 4-clinching win over Christopher Bell, who was the dominant driver on the day, leading 155 of 267 laps.

If Logano fails to deliver a win this weekend, the prognosis for a Championship 4-clinching win doesn't really let up over the final two races of the Round of 8.

After Las Vegas, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to the 2.66-mile Talladega Superspeedway, and Logano is one of, if not the best, superspeedway racers in the sport, which is evidenced by his recently revealed 100 rating on Superspeedways in iRacing's NASCAR 25 console game.

Logano has three career wins at Talladega, and he's amassed three more victories at fellow superspeedway facilities Daytona International Speedway and EchoPark Speedway (formerly Atlanta Motor Speedway).

And past Talladega, Logano is also very skilled at Martinsville Speedway, the site of the penultimate race of the NASCAR Cup Series season. Logano has 11 top-fives, and 21 top-10 finishes at the 0.526-mile short track in 33 career starts, and while he has just one career win at the paperclip, to be honest, he hasn't gone to Martinsville very often in recent years needing a race win to advance to the Championship 4.

The one time he did win at Martinsville, in 2018, Logano needed a win in order to advance to the Championship 4. He shoved Martin Truex Jr. out of the way in the final turn to take the emphatic win, and he would go on to win his first career NASCAR Cup Series championship a week later.

There's a very real chance Logano once again wins his way into the Championship 4 over the next three weeks, and even if he doesn't, Logano is so good at all three tracks that he could genuinely rack up enough points to overcome his 24-point deficit to the cutline.

If Logano does indeed advance to the Championship 4, he'll likely elevate from being the biggest underdog in the Playoff field at the start the Round of 8 to be the biggest favorite going into the green flag of the championship race at Phoenix Raceway, as he has four victories at the 1-mile flat track in Avondale, Arizona.

In addition to Logano's strong winning pedigree at Phoenix, his Team Penske organization has had the field covered at the track as the team has secured three consecutive NASCAR Cup Series championships combined between Logano (2022, 2024) and Ryan Blaney (2023) due to top-tier performances at Phoenix.

So, while the point deficit to the Playoff cutline that Logano faces entering the Round of 8 would make you feel that it's a justified number for just about any driver in the NASCAR Cup Series, it truly feels like the three-time NASCAR Cup Series champion who has been here, and done this before is being massively disrespected by the sportsbooks heading into this weekend's Round of 8-opening race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Who will Logano prove right over the next four weeks, me or the sportsbooks?

That's the best part of it all when it pertains to odds, the sweat. We'll have to wait and see.

It all starts with the NASCAR Cup Series South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday, October 12. That race will be televised on USA Network and streaming on HBO Max and the NBC Sports App (television provider login required) with coverage set to kick off at 5:30 PM ET. The Performance Racing Network (PRN) and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio will provide the radio broadcast of the 400-mile event in Las Vegas.