NASCAR Odds: Chase Elliott win total set ahead of 2024 season

Before we see cars on the track this NASCAR season, let’s talk about Chase Elliott and what to expect from the Hendrick driver in 2024. Elliott went winless last year after breaking his leg and being suspended for a race due to on-track issues.

Even without a win in 2023, Las Vegas seems to have faith in Elliott. Or, they know that fans are going to back the 2020 NASCAR Champion no matter what. He is the Most Popular Driver and has been for years.

Ahead of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season, Chase Elliott has a win total set at 2.5 according to Draft Kings. Will Elliott go over or under that total this season? In other words, are we going to see him win two or fewer races (-150), or will he win three or more (+120).

The most likely outcome, according to Vegas, is fewer than 2.5 wins on the season. However, it isn’t that much of a discrepancy. The only drivers set at 2.5 wins or higher are Elliott, Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, and William Byron.

Looking at the season ahead, I think Chase Elliott’s goal is to win three or more races. However, I’m not sure if we will see the Hendrick driver accomplish that goal.

Between Kyle Larson and William Byron, on his own team, wins are going to be hard to come by. Even on days when you beat the rest of the field, you might not be better than your own teammates.

There are other factors to consider as well.

Where will Chase Elliott win?

We know that Hendrick Motorsports will be strong to start the season. They always are. Tracks like Phoenix, Las Vegas, Atlanta – those are all very good for the organization. Looking at the schedule, where can Chase Elliott pick up wins?

In the past, we would point at road course races. He has seven wins on the road, but none in the Next Gen car. Could it be that the Cup Series has caught up to Elliott on these tracks? Drivers like Shane van Gisbergen aren’t making it any easier. The rise of Michael McDowell and Front Row on these tracks doesn’t help Elliott.

So, where do you point to? Dover, Martinsville, Talladega, and even Phoenix are on that list of tracks. Pocono is another one that Elliott has won at in the past.

I don’t want to dismiss Chase Elliott and his skill on the track. My skepticism here isn’t because of his talent, but because of the overwhelming amount of talent now in the Cup Series. Three wins is a lot. Then again, since winning his first Cup Series race at Watkins Glen in 2018 and the 2022 season, Elliott won multiple races, an average of 3.6 wins per year.

How many wins do you think Elliott will get in 2024?