Austin Dillon, driver of the (3) Breztri Chevrolet, has posted six top 10s in 11 races at Richmond. David Jensen/Getty Images

NASCAR odds for Richmond: Best early pick for Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400

Originally posted on Action Network | By PJ Walsh | Last updated 3/27/24

Following a fun race at Circuit of the Americas, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Richmond Raceway to compete under the lights on Easter Sunday.

Richmond is a short, flat track that's extremely tough on tires.

As a result, drivers who are elite at managing tire wear will be the ones to watch in Sunday's Toyota Owners 400 (7 p.m. ET, FOX).

Many NASCAR bettors also prefer races with excessive tire wear, as the falloff (or lack thereof) during practice makes identifying the best cars easier than at most other tracks.

My personal strategy is to wait until Saturday's practice sessions to make outright betting picks, though there's a top-1o prop I'm pouncing on right now.

North Carolina sports betting went live on March 11, so join in on the NASCAR action now.

NASCAR Pick for Richmond

*NASCAR odds as of Wednesday morning

Richmond is a very unique track, so much so that it fits some drivers' styles while being very difficult on others.

A good example of the former is Austin Dillon, who consistently performs well at this circuit.

To start, Dillon has two top-10 finishes in four Next Gen races at Richmond, which already piqued my interest in betting him for a top 10 again this week.

But if we look back even further, the stats are still impressive.

Dating back to the 2018 Cup Series season, Dillon has posted six top 10s in 11 races at Richmond.

To put this in perspective, just Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski have more.

Dillon is currently available at +400 odds, which translates to an implied probability of just 20%, which, based on the stats above, appears quite short of his true ability at Richmond.

The bet: Austin Dillon for a Top-10 Finish (+400 at bet365)

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