Ranking the likelihood of Kyle Larson breaking winless drought in upcoming NASCAR races

Defending NASCAR Cup Series champion Kyle Larson has, almost inexplicably, gone 37 races without reaching victory lane. 

With that said, the 32-time Cup Series winner could easily end that drought on any given weekend. Here's a look at the next five NASCAR Cup Series races and Larson's chances at ending his winless streak, with 1 being a relatively low level of confidence in him doing so and 10 being a much better chance. 

Nashville Superspeedway | May 31 | 9/10

Nashville has been one of Larson's best tracks since it was added to the Cup schedule in 2021. He won the first race at the Tennessee venue and has yet to finish outside of the top 10 at the 1.33-mile track in five starts. What he likely can't afford to do if he is to win this weekend is start at the back of the field, as he did last season en route to an eighth-place finish. 

Michigan International Speedway | June 7 | 8/10

Larson won three straight races at Michigan from 2016-17, including his first ever Cup race in August 2016. He has five top-seven finishes at MIS in his last six starts at the two-mile track and led 41 laps before crashing in 2024. There would be something somewhat poetic about Larson snapping his drought at the same track where he won for the very first time at the Cup level. 

Pocono Raceway | June 14 | 7/10

Larson has been solid at Pocono throughout his career, scoring 10 top 10s in 18 starts at the Pennsylvania track. He came a single corner away from winning in 2021 before suffering a flat tire in the final corner. 

Recently, however, the No. 5 team has been inconsistent at The Tricky Triangle. Larson hasn't led in either of the last two Pocono races, and 2024 was a no-show, as he started 12th and finished 13th. He'll need more speed than that if he is to break through for his first Pocono triumph. 

Naval Base Coronado | June 21 | 2/10

This race will be a huge unknown for Larson and the rest of the Cup Series field, and it's hard not to bet on a road course ace in Shane van Gisbergen to win this one. Still, Larson should have speed, and he's not a shabby road racer himself. It's still difficult to see him beating van Gisbergen at a brand new track. 

Sonoma Raceway | June 28 | 8/10

If van Gisbergen weren't in the field, this number would be a nine. He's won twice in the last five years at his home track in Wine Country and will no doubt show up with a fast car. Whether or not it will be enough to beat the seemingly indomitable SVG remains to be seen.