Ranking the NASCAR Cup Series title contenders' championship odds

Anything can happen, and all four contenders have realistic chances to capture the crown. Here's how they stack up from least to most likely.

4. Christopher Bell

Bell has been among the most consistent drivers in 2023 results-wise, with his average finish of 12.3 trailing only fellow title contender William Byron. However, consistency doesn't do you much good in a winner-take-all championship format.

History says you need to win the title race to be the champion (champions under the current playoff format have gone a perfect 9-for-9 in doubling as season-finale race winners), and Bell has only won twice in 2023. He seems like the clear weakest link among the four.

3. William Byron

Byron, on paper, seems like the favorite. He leads all drivers with six wins in 2023 and leads in top-10 finishes and average finish as well. He also won when the series previously came to Phoenix back in the spring. 

Why is he only ranked third here?

The nature of many of Byron's 2023 wins has involved a lot of good fortune with late-race cautions. His Phoenix win earlier this year came on a late restart, as did his wins at Las Vegas, Darlington and Texas. You can't count on there being late cautions every week, and if there's not, Byron may be out of luck.

2. Ryan Blaney

Blaney hasn't quite had a championship-caliber season at first glance. He's only scored seven top-five finishes and only led 560 laps, both lowest among the four title contenders. However, this is because his Penske Racing team has had a down year, as proved by the regressions of his teammates Joey Logano and Austin Cindric. 

Yet one track where Penske remains strong? Phoenix. Blaney finished runner-up in the spring to Byron and was also runner-up to Logano in last year's title race despite not being a championship finalist. Additionally, Blaney has all the momentum coming off his win in the penultimate race at Martinsville and has been one of the best drivers throughout the playoffs. He'll be a factor.

1. Kyle Larson

If anything, Larson earns favorite status because he's the only one of the four with proven championship pedigree, winning the 2021 title. He's also been the most dominant driver of 2023, leading the field in laps led with 1,127 — 201 of which were at Phoenix earlier in the year.

Larson's results have been inconsistent, with eight DNFs knocking his average finish down to 15th. However, that all goes out the window on Sunday, and if there's any driver to put money on in a single-race, winner-take-all scenario, it's Larson. When the checkered flag waves on the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season, he's the best bet to be the one raising the championship trophy.