Three to watch, one to avoid as NASCAR heads to Austin

NASCAR's Cup Series will see its first road-course action of the 2024 season this weekend at the Circuit of the Americas, with the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix on tap for Sunday.

We'll likely have a bit of a different cast of characters from usual up near the front, so here's three to watch – a favorite, a contender and a dark horse – as well as one driver to avoid in Austin, Texas.

Favorite: Tyler Reddick (+450, per DraftKings as of Friday afternoon)

There's probably about a half-dozen drivers for whom a case could be made as the best road racer in NASCAR right now, but at this track specifically, Reddick has to be considered the odds-on favorite – and he is, at +450.

Reddick won at COTA last year in dominant fashion, leading 41-of-75 laps and driving through the field after a pit strategy shakeup. He has won three road course races since the start of 2022 while nobody else has won more than one and he is your best bet to capture the checkered flag in Austin.

Contender: Daniel Suarez (+1600)

Again, there's no shortage of drivers who could be considered for this position, but considering Suarez's record at COTA, he is certainly one to watch. He started on the front row and led 15 laps at the track in 2022 and had a shot to win last year prior to a flurry of late cautions.

At +1600, Suarez's odds are only 12th-highest in the field. He can pretty safely be expected to run better than that on Sunday and could easily find himself right in the mix for a win.

Dark horse: Alex Bowman (+2500)

Well, the oddsmakers caught onto most of the expected road-course ringers, such as Shane van Gisbergen (+900), A.J. Allmendinger (+1500) and Michael McDowell (+1700). So we'll go with someone who generally isn't thought of as a road-racing ace – despite the fact that Bowman has finished second and third at COTA the past two years.

He hasn't won a Cup Series race since Las Vegas in 2022, as he's seen his performance hampered by a series of injuries in the time since. He always seems to strike when you least expect it, though Those +2500 odds could end up a great value on Sunday.

Avoid: Shane van Gisbergen (+900)

"SVG" will be a trendy pick given his memorable win on the streets of Chicago during his Cup Series debut in 2023. However it's important to note that he was driving what was a brand-new track for the entire field and when the New Zealander came back to run in a more "normal" race in Indianapolis, he ran a much more mortal 10th.

van Gisbergen could very easily be a front-runner at COTA, but those +900 odds – third-highest in the entire field – seem a bit eyebrow-raising for a driver who is still a bit of an unknown. The value isn't good enough value to risk the gamble and you would probably be better off looking elsewhere for your pick.