Three to watch, one to avoid as NASCAR heads to Dover

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to one of its most challenging tracks this weekend, with drivers tasked with taking on the high banks of the Dover Motor Speedway. 

With everyone looking to conquer Miles The Monster, here are three drivers to watch — a favorite, a contender and an underdog — and a driver to avoid betting on or putting in your fantasy lineup. 

Favorite: Kyle Larson (+450, per DraftKings)

The winner at Dover in the fall of 2019, Larson is looking to get back on track after two straight 21st-place finishes — neither of which were his fault. After a wheel fell off at Texas, a penalty put the No. 5 team behind the eight-ball before qualifying on Saturday morning. 

Larson finished second to Alex Bowman in 2021 in Hendrick's iconic 1-2-3-4 finish and was taken out by Ross Chastain early in the 2023 race at Dover. If Larson can avoid another untimely incident, he'll be more than ready to show the world why he's such a heavy favorite. 

Contender: Chase Elliott (+1100)

Elliott is a two-time Dover winner, including the first race at the track with the Next-Gen car in 2022. Despite a mediocre 15th-place run at Talladega, the celebratory mood from Elliott's Texas win still floats in the air. With the monkey of a 42-race winless streak off his back, it seems Elliott is flexing his muscles and reminding the NASCAR world why he made three consecutive appearances in the Championship Four. 

Underdog: Brad Keselowski (+1900)

Despite two straight second-place finishes at Texas and Talladega and owning the fifth-best average finish at Dover among active Cup Series drivers, Keselowski is largely being slept on this weekend. The speed the No. 6 team has shown over the past two races is extremely encouraging, and if a couple of breaks go his way, Sunday could be the day Keselowski breaks through for his first win as a NASCAR team owner. 

Avoid: Jimmie Johnson (+10000)

An 11-time Dover winner and seven-time Cup Series champion, it's easy to see why Johnson is regarded as one of the best drivers of all time. However, his best finish in five starts with the Next-Gen car is a paltry 28th in this year's running of the Daytona 500. Despite being the best to do it at the Monster Mile, Johnson has struggled mightily as a part-time driver, and those struggles are expected to continue on Sunday. Despite his impeccable record at Dover, it's wise to avoid betting on Johnson this weekend — and any other weekend he decides to make a Cup Series start in the future.