Three to watch, one to avoid for NASCAR at Phoenix Raceway

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to the Arizona desert for Sunday's Shriners Children's 500 at Phoenix Raceway.

Here are three drivers — a favorite, contender and dark horse — for the race and a driver you should probably avoid.

Favorite: Ryan Blaney (+650, per DraftKings as of Friday afternoon)

Kyle Larson is the betting favorite at +550, but Blaney should be given his recent record at this track. He has finished fourth, second, second and second in the past four races at Phoenix, and, of course, was crowned the 2023 Cup Series champion the last time the series raced here.

This time, he'll finally break through for the race win that has eluded him. He doesn't give you great value at +650, just behind Larson, but sometimes you can't overthink it. Blaney is your best bet.

Contender: Ross Chastain (+900)

Chastain won the most recent race at Phoenix, becoming the first driver in 10 years of NASCAR's winner-take-all playoff format to win the season finale without being championship-eligible. He's earned top-three finishes in three of his past four races at the track, and will surely be a threat to do so again.

At +900, Chastain is tied for the fourth-best odds, which seems like a slight bargain. Aside from Blaney, he should be considered the heaviest favorite in the field.

Dark horse: Chase Briscoe (+2500)

Briscoe's only Cup Series win came at Phoenix in spring 2022, and it's consistently been one of his best tracks throughout his time at the top level. He is quietly off to a strong start in 2024, showing speed in all three races, and on Sunday, he'll have a great opportunity to insert himself into the playoff picture.

At +2500, Briscoe has great value, so for those who like to live dangerously, he should be your pick.

Avoid: Kyle Busch (+1000)

Busch's +1000 odds are the eighth best in the field, but given his record at Phoenix and similar tracks in 2023, you may want to spend your money elsewhere. Aside from a win at Gateway, he has struggled on ovals with flat surfaces since moving to Richard Childress Racing. Busch finished 25th at Phoenix last and should not be high on your radar Sunday.