Ty Gibbs Will Break Out In 2026: Here’s Why

It’s been a tough time for Ty Gibbs in Cup, but the dark times for Ty are about to be over soon. After he broke the JGR record for most races started with the historic championship-winning team, he had yet to win a single race. Previously held by the infamous bust JJ Yeley. But like Yeley, this doesn’t mean Ty is a bad driver.

Heading into 2023, Ty was being compared to none other than Dale Earnhardt. His aggressive driving style and pitch-black car made his aesthetic match, but it went deeper than that. In his Xfinity Series debut at the Daytona road course, Ty Gibbs made a pass in the grass to take the lead and earn a debut win, paralleling Connor Zilisch, who did the same two years later. The following season, he dominated the Xfinity Series, earning eight wins en route to an Xfinity title.

So, Where Did All That Skill Go?

Well, in Cup, Ty Gibbs would face the biggest challenge of his career, the Next Gen car. Ty Gibbs came into the Cup Series younger than most. Most of his driving habits were developed in ARCA and Xfinity. Something that in any other generation of car wouldn’t be a problem, but the Next Gen is different.

The car was very different from any he’d ever driven before, with several differences from the Next Gen compared to the series that’s supposed to be best for developing drivers for Cup. The additional 5 inches in their wheelbase might not seem like a massive difference, but to the drivers, it is.

By extending it from the Xfinity Series’ length of 105 inches to 110 inches, the 3,500 pounds compared to the vehicle used in the Xfinity Series, which is 100 pounds less, cars are approximately 11 inches longer, one inch taller, and four inches narrower than the Cup Series competition vehicles. Even the aerodynamic packages to the safety modifications are totally different.

This made the young prodigy totally ill-prepared for NASCAR’s top level. And while Ty Gibbs is learning the car, the veterans have tons of wins, titles, and years behind all sorts of cars. Their extensive knowledge and skill behind the wheel made it easy for many drivers to adapt to the car. So they’ve already moved on to mastering the car. Leaving Ty Gibbs and many young drivers behind.

Ty Gibbs’s Hope For 2026

All that is why Ty Gibbs has struggled to show his true talent since moving to Cup in 2023. So the news that the Next Gen won’t be the same car next year must put a smile on his face. NASCAR’s seventh-generation car will get a much-needed facelift after fans complained about boring racing on short tracks and road courses.

With the 2026 car having more horsepower at short tracks and road courses specifically, it’s excellent news for the young Gibbs. With seven of his twelve career Xfinity Series wins coming at both types of tracks! (Counting Phoenix.)

However, that’s not the only difference the cars will have. The 2026 Next Gen will now feature a larger, tapered spacer to improve airflow and create more passing opportunities and tire-management challenges. These aren’t small changes either. These two changes will make the Next Gen car drive more like the Xfinity and ARCA cars Ty Gibbs is used to driving.

What Should Ty Gibbs’s Expectations For 2026 Be?

Ty Gibbs’ first career win should definitely be on the horizon if the high HP package works like expected. He won’t be a championship contender and will be the worst of the four, despite his experience and championship-level skill.

Still, his career highs of twelve top tens, eight top fives, and a 17.4 average finish should all be beaten in 2026. There’ll be a total of thirteen road courses and short tracks in 2026 (counting Phoenix). Not that he’ll undoubtedly get a top-ten finish in each race.

But with tracks like Michigan, Pocono, and Darlington all being top ten for his best tracks in terms of average finish. He clearly has enough skill on the other tracks to make this his best season in Cup yet.

Thanks a bunch for reading!