2018 NBA Draft lottery prospect tiers

Tier 1: The franchise savior (1) 

This tier is reserved for the elite of the elite — the prospects that only come along a couple of times a decade. Drafting a player in this tier immediately changes the outlook of your franchise. This is the type of player who will play at an All-NBA level for his entire prime and will attract other great players in free agency.

Luka Dončić (Real Madrid); NBA comparison: James Harden; Ideal fit: Phoenix Suns

Unlike most European prospects who enter the draft as teenagers after playing sparingly in the EuroLeague, Dončić has dominated the world’s second-best basketball league for years. The 6-8, 220-pound prodigy recently became the youngest player to win MVP of the EuroLeague after averaging 14.5 points to go along with five boards and five assists (in games that are only 40 minutes) for Real Madrid this past season. He capped the MVP season off by leading Real Madrid to a championship and winning the EuroLeague Final Four MVP. Last summer, he and Goran Dragic led Slovenia to a championship in EuroBasket 2017. The kid is a proven winner, a prodigious passer and great playmaker. If the Suns, Kings and Hawks are really considering passing on Dončić, they're out of their minds.

With a talented scorer in Devin Booker and a promising, athletic wing to ease his defensive burden in Josh Jackson, Dončić and the Suns seem like a perfect fit — oh, and they just hired Dončić’s Slovenian national team coach Igor Kokoskov as their head coach. If they add Clint Capela in free agency to pair Dončić with an elite rim-runner, the Suns could have one of the NBA’s best young nuclei for years to come. 

Tier 2: Never belonged in college (2)             

When you watched this tier of prospects play college basketball, you almost felt bad that they had to waste a year playing against inferior competition. Some players simply belong in the NBA. Even in their worst games, their size, athleticism and talent stood head-and-shoulders above everyone else. Barring injury, these prospects will develop into All-Star caliber players in the NBA.

DeAndre Ayton (Arizona); NBA comparison: Karl-Anthony Towns; Ideal fit: Phoenix Suns (or any team)

Ayton projects to be the NBA’s next great “unicorn” along the lines of Towns, Joel Embiid and Kristaps Porzingis. At seven feet, 245 pounds and owning a 7-5 wingspan, Ayton’s bouncy athleticism and mature offensive arsenal should make him one of the top big men in the NBA within the next four to five years. While he occasionally drifted didn’t demand the ball from the shot-happy Allonzo Trier enough at Arizona, it was great to see how he performed in the immediate aftermath of the Sean Miller FBI allegations — putting up a monster 28-point/18-rebound double-double in a hostile road environment against Oregon. Just about every team in the lottery could use a centerpiece like Ayton.

Marvin Bagley III (Duke); NBA comparison: Amare' Stoudemire; Ideal fit: Sacramento Kings

Bagley is a classic example of a prospect who played so well so quickly that scouts began to nitpick his game to the point where he has become underrated. There are rankings and mock drafts right now that have him falling to No. 6 for goodness sake. The guy is a 6-11, high-motor monster athlete who averaged 21 points and 11 rebounds while shooting 39 percent from three in the ACC as an 18-year-old. Imagine if Bagley hadn’t reclassified and enrolled in college last fall. If Dončić and Ayton are gone, the Hawks should hand in their selection before Commissioner Silver gets off the stage after announcing the second pick.

Tier 3: “This guy definitely won’t suck” (5)             

This tier is a nod to The Ringer’s Chris Vernon, who, after his beloved Grizzlies selected Hasheem Thabeet over James Harden and Steph Curry in the 2009 draft, decided that the best way to draft lottery picks is to draft players who “definitely won’t suck.” At worst, these prospects will be valuable rotation players in the NBA. At best, they can develop into stars.

Jaren Jackson Jr. (Michigan State); NBA comparison: Myles Turner; Ideal fit: Atlanta Hawks (or any team)

An elite rim protector and 40 percent three-point shooter, Jackson already has two translatable NBA skills that will get him immediate playing time. These two skills alone all but guarantee that he won’t be a bust. While his offensive game is far behind the likes of Ayton and Bagley, should he reach his potential, he will impact games the way Al Horford has impacted games in this year’s playoffs. His ability to be a star within his role on a talented Michigan State team makes him a good pick for any of the lottery teams.

Mikal Bridges (Villanova); NBA comparison: Trevor Ariza; Ideal fit: Cleveland Cavaliers

Bridges is the epitome of a three-and-D wing in today’s NBA. Insert him onto any of the conference finalists and he could play 20 minutes a game and not miss a beat. He probably doesn’t have the alpha-dog personality to be a superstar, but he could easily be the third best player on a contender. If the Cavaliers receive any indication from LeBron James that he’ll re-sign this summer, expect them to take a long look at Bridges as he’d be a perfect complement to the King on both ends of the floor.

Wendell Carter Jr. (Duke); NBA comparison: Al Horford; Ideal fit: Chicago Bulls

Some scouts actually believe that Carter is a better prospect than his Duke teammate Marvin Bagley. That’s a bit of a stretch, but it illustrates how intriguing Carter could be as a versatile center in the modern NBA. An intelligent (he almost went Harvard over Duke), jack-of-all-trades big man like Carter would excel on a playoff-contending team with established go-to scorers in place like the Cavs or the Wizards where he could make an immediate defensive impact and focus on rim-running and rebounding early in his career. However, he’d also be a great fit next Lauri Markkanen.

Miles Bridges (Michigan State); NBA comparison: Uber-athletic P.J. Tucker; Ideal fit: Philadelphia 76ers

Much like Mikal, there’s a lot to like with Miles Bridges: He’s a freak athlete who should be quick enough to switch onto guards and strong enough to defend most big men. He could get rotation minutes for a playoff team today. At worst, he should end up excelling in a P.J. Tucker-type role on a good team where he’d be asked to guard fours and fives in small-ball lineups, hit corner threes and make hustle plays. At best, if he improves on his playmaking abilities, he could develop into a version of his Spartan predecessor Draymond Green (with a higher offensive but lower defensive ceiling). 

Collin Sexton (Alabama); NBA comparison: Eric Bledsoe; Ideal fit: Charlotte Hornets (Blow it up, Mitch Kupchak!)

Sexton is a tenacious competitor whose game has parts of Russell Westbrook, Eric Bledsoe and Patrick Beverly in it. The upside of drafting a kid with those traits is you know that he’s going to bring it every single night and wow you on nights where he has it all going. The downside of drafting a kid with those traits is you have to be patient while he learns to cut down on wild turnovers, play within himself and run a team like an NBA point guard. Even if he never develops into a true point guard, he should at least carve out a Beverly-type niche in the league as an intense on-ball defender and decent spot-up shooter.

Tier 4: Get this pick wrong and you’re fired (3)             

These are the boom or bust prospects with tantalizing potential that fascinates general managers but often leads to them getting fired. These guys have the chance to blossom into All-NBA players but could just as easily turn into the next Anthony Bennett and bust out of the NBA before the end of their rookie deals. In a draft as deep as this one, selecting a player in this tier is a massive risk.

Mohamed Bamba (Texas); NBA comparison: Rudy Gobert or Manute Bol; Ideal fit: Dallas Mavericks

The upside: Mo Bamba has a 7-10 wingspan, the largest ever recorded at the NBA Combine. Combine that length with his equally insane vertical and we’re looking at quite possibly the most unique athlete the NBA has ever seen. Oh, and he has the mechanics of a reliable three-point shot. With upside potential like that, he should probably get an immediate restraining order against Jay Bilas.

The downside: Bamba never dominated at Texas, he can’t score in the post, he got overpowered by more physical players and tended to drift during games. In other words, he’s about as raw as they come and probably won’t make an impact on a team until a couple years from now. Draft at your own risk.

Michael Porter Jr. (Missouri); NBA comparison: Rudy Gay or Perry Jones; Ideal fit: Memphis Grizzlies or Philadelphia 76ers

This past fall, Porter was the top recruit in his high school class and in the mix to be the first overall pick in this year’s draft. Unfortunately, a hip injury ruined Porter’s season and left us with far more questions than answers about his ceiling and role in the NBA. Will he be the smooth, Kevin Durant-looking scorer that he was in high school? Or will he be the inefficient drifter that we saw for a couple late-season games at Missouri? Much will depend on the organization that drafts him. If ends up with an organization like the Sacramento Kings or Orlando Magic, he might be out of the NBA in five years. If he falls to the Philadelphia 76ers, he might be a max player with multiple rings a decade from now. 

Trae Young (Oklahoma); NBA comparison: Steph Curry or Shabazz Napier; Ideal fit: New York Knicks or Cleveland Cavaliers (if LeBron stays)

There haven’t been many lottery prospects who are as polarizing as Trae Young. On one hand, he’s the first prospect to truly model his game after the NBA version of Steph Curry. Thus, his three-point shooting range, off-the-dribble shooting and offensive creativity are as advanced as we’ve ever seen from a college freshman. On the other hand, he’s not as big or athletic as Curry, he had an entire offensive system built around him, and frequently shot his way far beyond the point of diminishing returns for a point guard. 

His ideal landing spot would be a team that could surround him with rangy three-and-D wings, a rim protector and a secondary ball handler who would allow Young to run his man through off-ball screens to produce additional open looks. While they don’t have those wings yet, the New York Knicks do have a young core of Kristaps Porzingis and Frank Ntilikina already in place, and they apparently "have the hots" for Young. With a little seasoning, Young could light up Madison Square Garden with Steph Curry-like heat checks.

Tier 5: Gems hiding in plain sight (3) 

While these prospects don’t have the same All-NBA ceilings as the Tier 4 guys, they possess enough attributes that could allow them to develop into All-Star caliber players if they end up in the right situations. These players don’t enter the league with the same pedigrees as some of their peers, but when you look up five years later, they’re considered some of the best players in their draft class.

Robert Williams (Texas A&M); NBA comparison: DeAndre Jordan; Ideal fit: Clippers (Jordan’s understudy and eventual replacement)

Williams’ performance in this year’s NCAA Tournament was a perfect anecdote of his infuriating inconsistency. In the Round of 32, Williams made the defending champion UNC Tar Heels look like a junior varsity team — swatting everything at the rim and windmill dunking Texas A&M to an upset victory. In the Sweet 16, A&M fans were looking for Williams on the side of milk cartons as Moritz Wagner and Michigan thoroughly spanked the Aggies. The good news is DeAndre Jordan was even less productive in college and look what he turned into once he got some NBA coaching and high-level guard play. Williams would fit in well as a protégé of Jordan.

Lonnie Walker IV (Miami); NBA comparison: Victor Oladipo before he made the leap last season; Ideal fit: L.A. Clippers

At 6-4, 206 pounds with an enormous wingspan and tremendous athletic abilities, Walker has all of the physical talent to be a go-to backcourt scorer and/or an effective defensive backcourt player. While the rest of his game is still developing, he certainly showed flashes of greatness in his one season at Miami and was a highly touted high school recruit. Walker would do best in a situation where he could be surrounded by veterans and eased into the rotation of a playoff-caliber team. The Clippers have a need for a gifted two-way guard as most of their guards are either all offense (Lou Williams, Milos Teodosić) or all defense (Patrick Beverly, Austin Rivers).

Keita Bates-Diop (Ohio State); NBA comparison: Khris Middleton; Ideal fit: Denver Nuggets

With apologies to Kevin Knox, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Troy Brown and Zhaire Smith, sometimes a prospect’s age blinds scouts from recognizing obvious NBA skills in a player (see Draymond Green, Jordan Bell, etc.). On his way to winning Big Ten Player of the Year, Bates-Diop displayed the ability to create his own shot, score efficiently from all three levels, rebound well for his position and defend multiple positions. If that weren’t enough, he also has an absurd 7-3 wingspan. This dude is a lottery talent who can play right away, and he’s hiding in plain sight.