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The NBA will be using its revamped lottery format for the fourth time this year. The new format, instituted in 2019, smoothed out the odds for top picks, reducing the league’s worst team’s chance of getting the No. 1 selection from 25.0% to 14.0%.
The changes have had an immediate impact. In 2019, the Pelicans and Grizzlies were tied for the seventh-best lottery odds, but jumped up to No. 1 and 2, respectively, allowing them to land Zion Williamson and Ja Morant.
In 2020, the Bulls and Hornets landed picks in the top four despite entering lottery night with the seventh- and eighth-best odds, respectively. That stroke of luck significantly changed the long-term outlook in Charlotte, where the Hornets were able to land LaMelo Ball with the No. 3 pick.
2021 was the most by-the-numbers of the three lotteries under the new format, but the Cavaliers and Raptors moved into the top four after entering lottery night with the fifth- and seventh-best odds and each landed a player who looks like a long-term franchise cornerstone (and a potential Rookie of the Year winner): Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes.
This year’s draft lottery will take place on Tuesday, May 17.
With the help of data from Tankathon.com — which is worth checking out for all sorts of draft-related info — the draft lottery odds for 2022 are listed in the chart below.
The numbers in the chart indicate percentages, so the Rockets‘ pick, for instance, has a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 47.9% chance of ending up at No. 5. If a team’s odds are listed as >0, that percentage is below 0.1%.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 47.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ORL | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| DET | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| OKC | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.7 | 2.2 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| IND | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.7 | 0.6 | – | – | – | – | – |
| POR | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.8 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| SAC | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 8.5 | – | – | 19.7 | 34.1 | 12.9 | 1.3 | >0 | – | – | – |
| LAL* | 6 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 7.2 | – | – | – | 34.5 | 32.1 | 6.7 | 0.4 | >0 | – | – |
| SAS | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | – | – | – | – | 50.7 | 25.9 | 3 | 0.1 | >0 | – |
| WAS | 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | 65.9 | 19 | 1.2 | >0 | >0 |
| NYK | 2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 77.6 | 12.6 | 0.4 | >0 |
| LAC* | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 86.1 | 6.7 | 0.1 |
| CHA | 1 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 92.9 | 2.3 |
| CLE | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 97.6 |
Notes:
- The Lakers‘ pick will be sent to the Pelicans if it lands in the top 10 or to the Grizzlies if it lands outside of the top 10.
- The Clippers‘ pick will be sent to the Thunder.
More must-reads:
- Looking back at the 1996 NBA Draft
- Knicks' Villanova trio knocks out the 76ers in Philadelphia
- The 'No. 2 overall NBA draft picks' quiz
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