Age: 23 years old
2024-2025 Role: Starting four (prior to injury)
Stats: 18.9 points per game, 10 rebounds, 5 assists, 1.0 blocks, 1.6 steals on 50/31.2/74.6 shooting splits (35.7 minutes per game in 36 games played this season)
Back in 2025-26: Yes
Once again, Jalen Johnson took another leap in his development before his season was cut short due to a long-term injury.
After last season, Johnson got buzz as a legitimate candidate for the 2024-25 Most Improved Player. In the 56 games he played, he averaged 16 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game on 51.1/35.5/72.8 shooting splits. Every single statistical category, outside of his 3P%, took a leap forward this season and the advanced numbers paint an excellent picture of why he is so invaluable to the Hawks.
On offense, he connected on a career-high 72% of his attempts at the rim (88th percentile). That was the second-best percentage on the Hawks last season and the next closest starter was Caris LeVert (67%). His TS% took a dip from 58.4% to 56.9%, but his AST% took a massive jump from 15.4% to 20.4%. Outside of Trae Young, there isn't a player on the Hawks with his abilities as a ball-handler. His TOV% did rise to 15.1% this season, but he also had the highest USG% of his career at 22.5%. Johnson also does tons of work on the offensive glass - he had a OREB% of 4.9% (74th percentile). Even though it was only 35 games, there were tons of encouraging signs from Johnson's growth as a offensive contributor. There's no reason to think he cannot be a high-level second option for Atlanta in the coming seasons.
The Hawks sorely missed the defensive contributions of Johnson. He had a career-high 10.8 defensive rebounds per game and grabbed 21% of the opponent's missed field goals. To put that in perspective, he finished in the 100th percentile as a defensive rebounder. The sample size is very small, but Johnson is one of the best in the league at ending possessions for opponents. He is also a disciplined defender, finished in the 96th percentile for defensive fouls committed. That's before mentioning how good he is as a shot blocker, posting a BLK% of 1.4% (85th percentile). He had a career-high defensive box plus-minus of 1.8 and his absence from the lineup left the Hawks extremely susceptible to getting exposed by star players with size.
To illustrate how important he is to Atlanta's success, the Hawks had a 22-19 record before his injury. The Hawks finished with a 40-42 record, going 18-23 in their games without him. That showed up in the advanced metrics too. The Hawks were 5.6 points better with him on the court, which grades out in the 82nd percentile relative to the rest of the league. Furthermore, Johnson also plays well with Trae Young. His TS% rises from 49.4% without Young to 60.2% with Young largely because Young sets him up well underneath the basket and Johnson has the skills necessary to capitalize on it. Furthermore, he takes pressure off of Young as a ball-handler. Defenses keyed in on Young this season down the stretch and it made the Hawks' offense very predictable.
Going forward, Johnson just needs to stay healthy. He can probably use some more improvement as as a three-point shooter and his level of focus on defense could be more consistent, but those are tweaks in his game that should be expected to emerge with time. Realistically, his absence at the end of the season consistently limits the ceiling of the Hawks. His injuries aren't necessarily indicative of anything degenerative, but it's hard to ignore the larger trend of being unavailable in April. If he can stay healthy for 65+ games, he should be expected to challenge for an All-Star nod as one of the best young forwards in the Eastern Conference.
It was another positive season for the Hawks' starting power forward and if he can stay healthy, bigger things are on the horizon in 2025-26.
Overall Grade: B
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