2024 NBA Finals: Celtics vs. Mavericks (Analysis, Comparison, Prediction)

Boston Celtics: Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis*

Dallas Mavericks: Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Derrick Jones Jr., PJ Washington, Dereck Lively II

The Celtics boast a starting lineup anchored by defensive stalwarts Jrue Holiday (12.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 4.6 APG in playoffs) and Derrick White (17.8 PPG, 4.6 APG, 1.3 BPG) in the backcourt. Holiday brings elite perimeter defense and playmaking ability, while White provides steady scoring and defensive prowess. Jaylen Brown (25.0 PPG) and Jayson Tatum (26.0 PPG, 10.4 RPG) form a dynamic wing and will be difference-makers in this series because of their size, athleticism, and elite scoring ability.

Kristaps Porzingis, though returning from injury with only four postseason appearances so far, adds a crucial stretch big element with his shooting and shot-blocking. What makes the Celtics particularly impressive is that Tatum does not always have to score 30 points for the team to win, and is leading the team in rebounds while the wealth is spread among the five stars.

The Mavericks counter with a lineup led by the sensational Luka Doncic and the scoring prowess of Kyrie Irving. Doncic, a triple-double threat every game, drives the Mavericks' offense with his playmaking and scoring and is posting 28.8 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 8.8 assists per game in the postseason. Irving brings championship experience and exceptional scoring ability, making the backcourt a potent offensive threat as the second option.

Irving is averaging 22.8 points and 5.2 assists per game in the playoffs, including 27.0 points per game in the Western Conference Finals. Derrick Jones Jr. provides athleticism and defensive energy, while PJ Washington and Dereck Lively II offer versatility and rebounding inside. Washington has been especially impactful, averaging 13.6 points per game in the playoffs so far as the third option.

Other than Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, the Mavericks do not have the quality of star power that the Celtics have. Holiday, White, and Porzingis are far stronger than the rest of the Mavericks’ starting lineup which gives the Celtics a major advantage on paper.

*Kristaps Porzingis is expected to return from injury during the Finals.

Advantage: Boston Celtics

Bench

Boston Celtics: Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Jordan Walsh, Oshae Brissett, Al Horford, Xavier Tillman Sr, Luke Kornet

Dallas Mavericks: Tim Hardaway Jr., Dante Exum, Maxi Kleber, Josh Green, Jaden Hardy, Daniel Gafford

The Celtics' bench features a mix of experience and youth. Payton Pritchard provides shooting and playmaking (7.5 PPG, 2.3 APG on 45.5% from three in playoffs), while Sam Hauser offers scoring and defensive depth despite only shooting 33.3% from three in the postseason. Oshae Brissett brings energy and versatility, and veterans like Al Horford (9.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG) and Xavier Tillman Sr. provide leadership and playoff experience. Luke Kornet adds size and shooting from the center position, giving the Celtics depth at every position. No doubt, Horford and Pritchard will be the key members of the Celtics bench.

The Mavericks' bench includes Tim Hardaway Jr., a proven scorer with deep shooting range, and Dante Exum, who adds defensive versatility and playmaking. Maxi Kleber provides rim protection and three-point shooting, while Josh Green and Jaden Hardy offer athleticism and defensive energy. Daniel Gafford brings shot-blocking and rebounding and has been critical for the Mavericks in the playoffs by averaging 9.2 points and 5.9 rebounds per game.

The Celtics have a deeper bench with more experienced players and versatile contributors. Horford and Pritchard can stabilize the team as the go-to bench options. The Mavericks rely heavily on Hardaway Jr. for scoring and Exum for defensive stability but may struggle with depth beyond these key players other than Daniel Gafford’s presence as a rim-runner and athlete. Horford and Pritchard have been bigger parts of the team compared to Gafford.

Advantage: Boston Celtics

Joe Mazzulla vs. Jason Kidd

Joe Mazzulla has guided the Celtics to the Eastern Conference Finals with a focus on defensive intensity and efficient scoring last year and has led the team to the NBA Finals this year. His emphasis on player development and strategic adjustments has been key to the Celtics' success. Mazzulla's ability to manage rotations and utilize his team's depth has been a significant factor in their postseason run. Last year’s rookie head coach has immensely improved with his rotations and his interesting method of not calling timeouts during an opposition’s run has worked so far.

Jason Kidd brings championship experience and a deep understanding of playoff basketball. His coaching style revolves around maximizing the talents of his star players like Doncic and Irving while integrating younger players effectively. Kidd's experience as a former point guard translates into his coaching, where he emphasizes ball movement and defensive discipline. Similar to Mazzula, Kidd has improved as a head coach and his rotations have worked to near-perfection so far this season. Due to this fact, neither team has a distinct advantage in coaching entering the Finals.

Advantage: Even

Boston Celtics Advantages

The Boston Celtics hold advantages in their starting lineup and all-around star power primarily due to their defensive prowess and balanced scoring. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White provide elite perimeter defense and playmaking, which can disrupt the Mavericks' offense led by Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Holiday, in particular, is known for his ability to defend multiple positions and his experience in big-game situations. Derrick White adds another defensive-minded guard who can also contribute offensively with his scoring ability.

On the offensive end, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum provide versatile scoring options. They can score from anywhere on the floor, whether it's driving to the rim, hitting mid-range jumpers, or knocking down three-pointers. This versatility forces defenses to stretch and opens up opportunities for their teammates. Kristaps Porzingis, if healthy and playing at his best, adds a dimension of floor spacing with his ability to shoot from outside and protect the rim on defense. What makes the Celtics even more impressive is that Tatum or Brown can have bad games and the team can still win games.

Dallas Mavericks Advantages

The Dallas Mavericks' starting lineup is headlined by the dynamic duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, two of the most potent offensive threats in the league. Doncic's ability to score, facilitate, and control the pace of the game makes him a matchup nightmare for any team. Irving brings championship experience and elite scoring ability, which adds another layer to the Mavericks' offensive firepower. Derrick Jones Jr. provides athleticism and defensive energy, while PJ Washington and Dereck Lively II bring versatility and rebounding to the frontcourt.

Offensively, the Mavericks' starting lineup can stretch the floor with their shooting and create mismatches with Doncic and Irving's playmaking abilities. The duo picked apart the number one defense in the league in the Western Conference Finals, and it could be possible that they can do it to the Celtics although it certainly won’t be an easy task.

Who Wins The 2024 NBA Finals?

Despite the presence of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving as the best backcourt in the NBA, the Boston Celtics will win the series. They have five legitimate All-Star talents and a former All-Star Al Horford coming off the bench. Even Payton Pritchard has improved, shooting over 40% from three as a backup point guard. The Celtics can trust their “Big Seven” at any point in the Finals, and that is without diving into how dominant Tatum and Brown can be.

The Mavericks did a tremendous job limiting Anthony Edwards in the Western Conference Finals because the 22-year-old did not take over as he did against the Denver Nuggets. However, Tatum and Brown are right in their primes playing their best basketball together and it is a tall task to believe PJ Washington, Derrick Jones Jr, and Luka Doncic can handle them. Tatum, at 6’9”, and Brown at 6’7” are too athletic and skilled offensively to shut them out of the series.

Even if one of them has a bad game, expect Jrue Holiday to come up with big-time winning plays such as his steal against the Indiana Pacers in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Derrick White has become the third option on the team, and the return of Kristaps Porzingis might make the Celtics impossible to defend at times. We have not seen Porzingis just yet, but he averaged 20.1 points and 7.2 rebounds per game in the regular season which means the Mavericks will need to defend them perfectly in every possession.

Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving could easily average close to 30 PPG each in the Finals, but it still might not be enough. The Celtics have too much star power, and it is too tall of a task to expect Doncic and Irving to go toe-to-toe with multiple All-Star caliber players on the Celtics. Unless Doncic and Irving can channel their greatest moments that we haven’t seen yet, the Celtics will likely win the 2024 NBA Finals in five games.

Prediction: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks 4-1