2025 NBA Draft Lottery Odds: Full Breakdown Ahead of Monday’s Draw

The event, held in Chicago, brings together a swirl of hope, numbers, and ping pong balls — literally. Fourteen balls numbered 1 through 14 are dropped into a lottery machine, which randomly spits out four of them.

That combination (from 1,001 possibilities) is matched to a team based on their regular-season record. The process is repeated to fill out the top four picks. After that, order is set by standings.

It’s a system built on math and chance, but the prize — this year especially — is clear: Cooper Flagg, the former Duke forward and presumed No. 1 overall pick.

From there, the class deepens. Rutgers star Dylan Harper is the consensus second-best prospect, with teammate Ace Bailey, Baylor’s VJ Edgecombe, Oklahoma’s Jeremiah Fears, and Texas wing Tre Johnson all in play early.

But it’s not just top-heavy. League executives have called the 2025 class deep and balanced — and maybe even ideal for teams looking to reload, not just rebuild. There’s real belief that rotation players will be found well into the second round.

That round, by the way, will only have 29 picks this year. The New York Knicks were docked their second-rounder after the NBA found tampering violations during the 2022 pursuit of Jalen Brunson. Considering Brunson’s All-NBA-level production, it’s doubtful New York regrets the price.

Odds to Land the No. 1 Overall Pick:

• Utah Jazz (17-65): 14.0%
• Washington Wizards (18-64): 14.0%
• Charlotte Hornets (19-63): 14.0%
• New Orleans Pelicans (21-61): 12.5%
• Philadelphia 76ers (24-58): 10.5%*
• Brooklyn Nets (26-56): 9.0%
• Toronto Raptors (30-52): 7.5%
• San Antonio Spurs (34-48): 6.0%
• Houston Rockets (via Suns): 3.8%
• Portland Trail Blazers (36-46): 3.7%
• Dallas Mavericks (39-43): 1.8%
• Chicago Bulls (39-43): 1.7%
• Sacramento Kings (40-42): 0.8%
• San Antonio Spurs (via Hawks): 0.7%**

• Pick goes to Philadelphia if it lands in the top six; otherwise it conveys to Oklahoma City.

** Pick goes to Atlanta if it lands in the top 12; otherwise it conveys to Sacramento.

Back to the lottery — and the stakes. The Jazz, Wizards, and Hornets all enter with the best odds. The Pelicans, after a full nosedive, are close behind. And watch the Rockets: they won 52 games this season but still have a lottery ticket thanks to the Durant deal.

The 2025 NBA Draft takes place in Brooklyn over two nights — June 25 (Round 1) and June 26 (Round 2). Expect fireworks. And trades. Lots of trades.