2025 NBA Playoffs: Three Thoughts On Tomorrow's Hawks-Heat Elimination Game

The final NBA Play-In Tournament matchups are set for Friday night. The Atlanta Hawks will host the Miami Heat, with the winner getting a first round matchup with Cleveland, and in the Western Conference, Memphis hosts Dallas, with the winner getting a first round matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

This is going to be the fifth matchup of the season between the Hawks and the Heat. Three of the four matchups have taken place since the Heat made the move to trade Jimmy Butler and the Heat are 2-1 in those games. Will tomorrow's game be any different?

Here are my first thought's on the game tomorrow.

1. The Hawks defense may determine this game

When the Hawks were fully healthy with Jalen Johnson, Larry Nance, and Clint Capela, their defense, while not elite, was pretty good. Without these guys, it has been tough for the Hawks to defend. While the Hawks did have arguably their best defensive performance vs this Heat team on February 24th, holding Miami to 86 points and 17.5% from three. The last two matchups are a completely different story.

Just two days after holding the Heat to 86 points, Miami scored 131 points and shot 55% from three. The third quarter of that game saw the Heat score 42 points and pull away from the Hawks. In their most recent matchup on March 27th, Miami scored 122 points and shot 55% from three, with Tyler Herro scoring 36 points.

One thing about the most recent matchup was that the Hawks started Vit Krejci in place of Mouhamed Gueye, who ended up not playing in the game. I don't expect that to happen again, as Gueye has been a pretty solid defender for the Hawks.

Miami is not one of the better offensive teams in the NBA, but they showed in the final two games against the Hawks and in last night's game vs the Bulls, they can take advantage of poor defense. Atlanta has to be better on that end or their season will be over.

2. Can the Hawks guard Tyler Herro?

Shutting down Tyler Herro does not guarantee a Hawks win, but it would help. Last night against Chicago, Herro scored 38 points and he has had a fantastic season. In the Hawks victory over Miami on February 24th, Herro was 4-19 from the field and 0-9 from three, scoring 11 points. It is no secret that Dyson Daniels is going to be guarding Herro on Friday night and he and the rest of the Hawks defense will need to limit his effectiveness.