2026 NBA Draft lottery primer

Unlike last year, when Cooper Flagg was considered the crown jewel in the draft class, the No. 1 overall pick this year isn’t a foregone conclusion. But that’s a reflection of the strength and depth of the 2026 class, since there’s no shortage of legitimate candidates for that top spot.

While BYU forward AJ Dybantsa is atop most draft boards, Kansas guard Darryn Peterson, Duke big man Cameron Boozer and North Carolina forward Caleb Wilson are all considered high-level prospects who could have real cases to be drafted first overall.

In other words, it’s not necessarily “No. 1 or bust” this year. Any team that secures a top-four pick on May 10 should leave the lottery pretty happy.

Here’s what you need to know heading into Sunday’s lottery:

Pre-lottery draft order

The top 14 picks in the 2026 NBA Draft would look like this if Sunday’s lottery results don’t change the order:

1. Washington Wizards
2. Indiana Pacers
   • Note: The Clippers will receive this pick if it falls out of the top four (47.9%).
3. Brooklyn Nets
4. Utah Jazz
5. Sacramento Kings
6. Memphis Grizzlies
7. Atlanta Hawks (from Pelicans)
   • Note: The Hawks will receive the most favorable of this pick and the Bucks’ pick.
8. Dallas Mavericks
9. Chicago Bulls
10. Milwaukee Bucks
    • The Bucks will receive the least favorable of this pick and the Pelicans’ pick.
11. Golden State Warriors
12. Oklahoma City Thunder (from Clippers)
13. Miami Heat
14. Charlotte Hornets

For the full pre-lottery draft order, click here.

Draft lottery odds

The Wizards, Pacers and Nets have the best odds to land the No. 1 pick. Each of those three teams has a 14.0% chance to pick first overall.

From there, the Jazz (11.5%) and Kings (11.5%) have the next-best odds to receive the first overall selection, followed by the Hawks (9.8%), Grizzlies (9.0%) and Mavericks (6.7%).

When the NBA introduced its new lottery format in 2019, the selling point was that the new system flattened the odds, making it less likely that the league’s very worst teams would claim a top pick.

Before the NBA tweaked the lottery rules, there was a 60.5% chance that one of the league’s bottom three teams would secure the No. 1 pick and only a 27.6% chance that a team in the 5-14 range of the lottery standings would do so. Now, those odds are 42.0% and 45.5%, respectively.

Those flattened odds have made a significant impact in the past couple years. In 2024, the Hawks moved up from 10th in the pre-lottery order to grab the No. 1 pick, while the Mavericks one-upped them in 2025 by claiming the top pick from the No. 11 slot. We’ll see if that trend continues with another long-shot team winning the first overall selection in 2026.

For this year’s full draft lottery odds for all 14 spots, including precise odds for the Hawks and Bucks, click here.

For full details on the current lottery format, click here.

Trades affecting the draft lottery

The Pacers traded their 2026 first-round pick to the Clippers, but will keep that selection if it lands within the top four. There’s a 52.1% chance that will happen and a 47.9% chance it will slip to No. 5 or No. 6 and be sent to Los Angeles. If Indiana retains its first-rounder this year, the club would instead owe its 2031 first-round pick (unprotected) to the Clippers.

The Hawks will exit the lottery with the most favorable pick between the Pelicans and Bucks first-rounders, while the Bucks will control the least favorable of the two.

That means the Hawks have a 40.2% chance of securing a top-four pick, including a 9.8% chance at No. 1 overall, while Milwaukee has just a 3.0% shot at a top-four pick and can’t draft higher than second overall. Atlanta also has a 90.1% chance to draft in the top eight, whereas the Bucks’ odds to draft at No. 10 or lower are 86.9%.

The Clippers‘ first-round pick will be sent to the Thunder, no matter where it lands. That pick has a 7.1% chance of moving into the top four, with 1.5% odds of becoming the first overall pick. It’s safe to assume the NBA’s other 29 teams will be rooting hard against either of those outcomes.

Draft lottery representatives

The representatives for each of this year’s lottery teams are as follows, according to a pair of announcements from the NBA:

Washington Wizards

• On stage: John Wall (former Wizards player)
  
• Drawing room: Michael Winger (president)

Indiana Pacers

• On stage: T.J. McConnell
• Drawing room: Ted Wu (executive VP of basketball operations / assistant GM)

Brooklyn Nets

• On stage: Vince Carter (former Nets player)
• Drawing room: Joe Tsai (governor)
  

Utah Jazz

• On stage: Keyonte George
• Drawing room: Austin Ainge (president of basketball operations)

Sacramento Kings

• On stage: Scott Perry (general manager)
• Drawing room: John Kehriotis (minority owner)

Memphis Grizzlies

• On stage: Tayshaun Prince (VP of player affairs)
• Drawing room: Zach Kleiman (president of basketball operations / GM)

Atlanta Hawks

• On stage: Onsi Saleh (general manager)
• Drawing room: Daniel Starkman (VP of player personnel)
  

Dallas Mavericks

• On stage: Rolando Blackman (former Mavericks player)
  
• Drawing room: Matt Riccardi (assistant GM)

Chicago Bulls

• On stage: Toni Kukoc (special adviser to the president and CEO)
• Drawing room: Chigozie Umeadi (executive director of basketball operations)

Milwaukee Bucks

• On stage: Mallory Edens (ownership representative)
• Drawing room: Dave Dean (VP of basketball operations)

Golden State Warriors

• On stage: Larry Harris (assistant GM / director of player personnel)
• Drawing room: Raymond Ridder (senior VP of communications)

Oklahoma City Thunder

• On stage: Nick Collison (special assistant to the general manager)
• Drawing room: Sam Presti (executive VP of basketball operations / GM)

Miami Heat

• On stage: Alonzo Mourning (VP of player programs)
• Drawing room: Adam Simon (assistant GM)

Charlotte Hornets

• On stage: Kon Knueppel
• Drawing room: Jake Stone (assistant to the president of basketball operations)

Clippers executive director of basketball operations Rishabh Desai will also be present in the drawing room, but L.A. won’t have a representative on stage, since the team’s pick is headed to Oklahoma City regardless of where it lands.

Notably, the Mavericks‘ duo of Blackman and Riccardi is the same pair that was in attendance a year ago when Dallas won the lottery and the right to draft Flagg. The Mavs, of course, are hoping that Blackman and Riccardi bring the same sort of luck they did in 2025.

A total of 16 media members will also be present in the drawing room, per the NBA. That group is made up of a combination of national reporters, like Jake Fischer and Brian Windhorst, and local beat writers, including Dustin Dopirak and Jim Owczarksi. It can be viewed here.