3 Key Adjustments The Thunder Can Make In Game 2

Suggesting a professional basketball team box out more is the lowest of hanging fruit, but it was a genuine problem for the Thunder. Especially against a team like Denver, which will create second chances even against great box outs, Oklahoma City can’t offer free offensive rebounds.

Oklahoma City’s aggressive gap help exacerbates this problem, opening up lanes to crash the glass on missed shots. The first clip above exemplifies this, as Jalen Williams pinches in at the elbow to crowd Jokic on the catch. That lets Gordon slip by and crash the glass without Williams there to throw his body against him.

The Thunder have lost the rebounding battle in all but one of their five matchups with Denver this season. It’s not surprising, given the roster construction of both teams. But the Thunder can benefit greatly from even minor improvement in a playoff setting governed by razor thin margins.

Make Nikola Jokic Work For His Touches

A dominant Oklahoma City unit defended Jokic fairly well in the first half, as he recorded a pedestrian (by his standards) 16 points on 13 shots. Jokic finished the game with 42 points on 29 shots, mustering a dominant performance from the all-time great. The Thunder forced some uncharacteristic passing turnovers with their stunting and baiting off of the ball. But eventually, Jokic will have his way against an Oklahoma City team severely lacking in girth.

When Jokic catches the ball, Oklahoma City can bait him to shoot, double-team him or shade him toward a certain direction. Jokic catching the ball in the first place, though, likely spells disaster for even the greatest defenses. 

The Thunder found some success early in the game denying Jokic catches entirely, especially whenever weak shooters handled the ball. Watch Cason Wallace retreat from Westbrook to take away the entry pass to Jokic (aided by some excellent physicality from Alex Caruso) and induce a long jumper for a poor shooter.

Oklahoma City wasn’t sharp enough in executing this strategy as the game progressed, helping Jokic control the action in the second half. Thunder defenders let Jokic catch the ball easily and find his offensive intention on most possessions down the stretch. Contested catches and skirmishes for position add up across a game and series. Oklahoma City needs to take advantage. 

In the regular season, a short Los Angeles Lakers team slowed Jokic with extreme physicality and ball denial. If the Thunder can’t find a solution against Jokic, they could look to emulate that strategy. They flashed this at times late in the game, unleashing big bodies like Williams and Lu Dort onto Jokic.

Jamal Murray initiating ball-screens throws another challenge into the Jokic matchup, and the Thunder must improve their ball-screen coverage for future playoff games. Poor screen navigation and late rotations back to Jokic will spell disaster. 

Despite a nuclear Jokic performance, the Thunder played well enough to win, though, and minor changes could pay major dividends. Even in a loss, they held the Nuggets to an excellent 83.3 half-court offensive rating and instead bled points in transition. Oklahoma City has the defensive tools to keep slowing Denver’s offense with increased intensity and continue centering on Jokic.

Pressure The Basket

Outside of Peyton Watson, offenses can exploit Denver’s lack of rim protection and shot blocking. During the regular season, the Nuggets ranked 20th in opponent rim efficiency (67.3 percent) and 21st in team block rate (9.0 percent). While they keep teams out of the paint, ranking 11th in opponent rim frequency (20.5 percent), opponents found success aggressively targeting the basket against the Nuggets.

Denver benefits from Oklahoma City’s preferred shot locations, as the Thunder ranked 24th in rim frequency this season (29.4 percent). Their rim frequency dropped even further in Game 1, attempting 28 percent of their shots at the hoop and making a frigid 54.6 percent (12-of-22) of them. The Thunder thrive in the midrange, but they didn’t challenge Denver’s rim protection much.

Oklahoma City’s offensive approach as a whole suffered from this passivity. The Thunder settled for difficult jumpers, floaters and reset passes when they could’ve attacked Jokic at the hoop, hopefully boosting a mediocre 20.2 percent free-throw rate.

The Thunder scored efficiently in the short midrange (48.1 percent), upping their regular season frequency by nearly 4 percent. Isaiah Hartenstein’s floater mastery makes this a viable option and he converted 71 percent (5-of-7) of his teardrops. Midrange dependence isn’t detrimental for the Thunder by any means, but they could benefit from attacking Jokic and Denver’s interior defense more than usual in this matchup.

Williams especially struggled on offense, following up a promising offensive series against the Memphis Grizzlies with an inefficient 16 points on 20 shots. Denver challenged Williams’ loose handle and sped up his process as a creator. Williams has the physical tools to bruise and slash in the paint, but he couldn’t find the bottom of the net from anywhere on the court in Game 1.

Chet Holmgren also struggled to score efficiently (12 points on 11 shots), worn down by Denver’s physicality on drives and catches. Oklahoma City scarcely turned to the Holmgren-Hartenstein pick-and-roll, but it created great shots on both occasions. A ball-screen helps create space for Holmgren and lets his fluidity and playmaking shine.

Denver punished Oklahoma City’s poor spacing throughout the game, especially when Holmgren and Hartenstein shared the floor (the Nuggets outscored the Thunder by four with that duo on the court). Being more intentional about proper spacing can help pull defenders out of driving lanes and unclog the paint to facilitate more shots at the rim. The Thunder will need that if they wish to better exploit Denver’s shaky interior defense moving forward in this series.