3 Reasons Warriors Can Upset Clippers in Play-In Game

The Golden State Warriors are underdogs entering their play-in game matchup against the LA Clippers at Intuit Dome.

Most sportsbooks have the Clippers about five-point favorites as of 8 p.m. ET Monday publish time.

A Warriors team led by four-time champions Stephen Curry and Draymond Green beating a Clippers team that hasn't won a playoff series in four years wouldn't be a shocker, but the fact that LA has the NBA's sixth-best record in the league since Dec. 19 makes it the rightful favorite.

Still, there are a few reasons the Warriors can upset the Clippers. Here are three of them.

Shorter Benches Will Benefit Warriors

The Clippers went 3-1 against the Warriors this season, but they actually were pretty thoroughly outplayed in the minutes Steph was on the court.

There are caveats galore here. The Warriors had Jimmy Butler playing in the first two games. Kawhi Leonard didn't play in the fourth game. But still, these numbers suggest the Warriors will have a good chance to win the Curry minutes.

With that said, Steve Kerr has already decided Curry won't play 40 minutes, and it's likely he'll settle in at the low-to-mid 30s. So the Warriors will have to be more competitive in the non-Curry minutes.

That should be an easier task with a shorter rotation.

The Clippers are smart enough to pick on players with major weaknesses. They relentlessly attacked the Warriors' worst defensive players this season, and it worked.

Of these five players, one was traded, another isn't on the postseason roster, and the other three might not play.

The Clippers have more useful players at the end of their bench. Over the course of a regular season, that's a big advantage. But in a one-game playoff, it might not matter that Jordan Miller, Bennedict Mathurin, Nicolas Batum and Bogdan Bogdanovic are better 7-10 players than Al Horford, Gary Payton II, Will Richard and Seth Curry.

Each team's top six will play heavier minutes than usual, and it's easy to believe that Stephen Curry, De'Anthony Melton, Brandin Podziemski, Green, Kristaps Porzingis and Gui Santos will outplay Darius Garland, Kris Dunn, Derrick Jones Jr., Leonard, Brook Lopez and John Collins.

Curry Has Been Dominant in Play-In Games

The Warriors have had two heartbreaking losses that have led to a 1-3 record in the play-in tournament, but that shouldn't take away from how great Curry has played in these games.

His worst performance came in 2024 against the Kings, which in hindsight isn't shocking considering the Warriors battled down the stretch to move up the playoff standings, only to still end up in 10th.

That team was running on fumes. This team is not.

The problem for Curry and some of his teammates—namely Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford—isn't being worn down. It's being ramped up enough for bigger minutes.

Though Curry hasn't put up great numbers against the Clippers this season, a game with real stakes is different. The last time these two played a game with stakes was last year's regular-season finale in which a) Curry had 36 points and b) the Clippers won in overtime. That game forced the Warriors into the play-in tournament.

A virtuoso Curry performance doesn't guarantee that the Warriors will win, but it could be enough to tip the scales against a Clippers team that doesn't have as much firepower as it did when it had James Harden.

LA Has Rebounding Issues

The Clippers have had the Warriors' number for years, and a big reason was Ivica Zubac.

The former LA center had the following stat lines against the Warriors over the last two seasons:

- October 2024: 23 points, 18 rebounds, six assists
- November 2024: Eight points, 17 rebounds, four assists
- December 2024: 17 points, 11 rebounds, five blocks
- April 2025: 22 points, 17 rebounds, three assists
- October 2025: 14 points, 12 rebounds, one block
- January 2026: 10 points, 11 rebounds, one block

The Clippers won five of those six games.

Since Zubac played his last game for LA on Feb. 2, the Clippers are 26th in rebounding rate, per NBA.com.

The Warriors are not a great rebounding team in their own right, but they have been better than the Clippers in that same span, which is notable considering they've been dealing with injuries that have decimated their frontcourt.

On Wednesday, they will have a front-line rotation of Green, Santos, Porzingis and Horford that is capable of taking advantage of LA's rebounding issues.

Even if the rebounding battle is equal, that's a stark contrast from recent history. In that 2025 regular-season finale that the Clippers won in overtime, they won the rebounding battle by 17.