The Minnesota Timberwolves are back in the Western Conference finals for the second consecutive year and are set to begin the best-of-seven series against the Oklahoma City Thunder, which begins with Tuesday night's Game 1 in OKC.
The Wolves will have their hands full with the Thunder, who've arguably been the best team in the NBA all season long and posted 68 wins in the regular season. It's a significant step up in competition from the first two rounds, and it'll take plenty to pull off the upset. Here are five keys for Minnesota in this series as it looks to make its first-ever NBA Finals appearance:
The Wolves did a great job limiting turnovers in their first-round series against the Los Angeles Lakers (11.2 per game), but not so great in the semifinals against the Golden State Warriors (18.4 per game). Their 15.7% turnover percentage is the highest of any remaining team in the playoffs, and the Thunder will absolutely make them pay for any giveaways.
OKC is scoring a playoff-best 24.7 points per game off turnovers, and if the Wolves have multiple games with 20-plus giveaways like they did against the Warriors, they could be in for a rough series. Taking care of the ball will be critical against the NBA's top-ranked defense, and Minnesota needs to do everything in its power not to give OKC any free points.
“You got to make simple plays," Timberwolves coach Chris Finch told reporters on Monday. "I don’t think it’s a team that you can do a lot of fancy stuff against. I think you got to keep everything simple, keep it strong. You’re not going to drive and spin in a crowd, you’re not going to go between your legs. I just think you got to go back to rudimentary basketball plays on the offensive end of the floor.”
Donte DiVincenzo and Nickeil Alexander-Walker have struggled this postseason, but the Wolves absolutely need them against a Thunder team that can match their depth player for player. DiVincenzo is averaging 8.0 points per game on just 33% shooting from the field and 25% shooting from 3-point range. For Alexander-Walker, it's 6.5 points per game on 36% shooting from the field and 29% from 3. DiVincenzo has a plus-minus of minus-11 during this playoff run and Alexander-Walker is a plus-1, while all other Wolves mainstays are plus-31 or above. Minnesota needs more from two of its top-three bench players, who have both shown they can make much more of an impact than they've shown so far this postseason.
Anthony Edwards averaged 27.6 points per game on 45% shooting from the field this season, but those numbers dropped to 22.3 points on 36% shooting in the four regular-season games against the Thunder. OKC has the point-of-attack defenders to throw at him and can clog the paint with strong rim protectors like Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Finding ways for Edwards to score efficiently and get to the rim will be crucial. Every point matters vs. OKC.
Not exactly a groundbreaking one as rebounding is key to any playoff series, but the performances on the glass have been up and down for the Wolves. Minnesota's 42.0 rebounds per game in the playoffs are the second fewest of any team still remaining — ahead of only the Indiana Pacers — but its 52% rebound percentage is a tick above OKC's 48%. The Thunder are grabbing defensive rebounds at less than a 70% clip in the playoffs, so crashing the glass on offense and keeping OKC off it on defense could be an advantage for Minnesota to exploit in this series — and it could be a big one.
In four games against the Wolves this season, Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 35.0 points, 7.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game while attempting 12 free throw per game. Finding ways to make things difficult on the likely MVP will at the top of the priority list for the Timberwolves defense. Minnesota beat the Thunder by double digits once in the regular season, and Gilgeous-Alexander shot just 6 for 21 in that game. OKC's offense goes as Gilgeous-Alexander goes.
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