After missing the postseason for the first time in 23 years in 2019-20, the Spurs didn’t exactly bounce back with a vengeance in 2020-21. Their 33-39 record was just a half-game improvement over the year before, and while San Antonio earned a spot in the play-in tournament, the team was quickly eliminated by Memphis, missing the playoffs two years in a row for the first time in franchise history.
San Antonio’s struggles can be traced back to an inability to maximize the return for All-NBA forward Kawhi Leonard in 2018. That wasn’t entirely the team’s fault – Leonard’s injury situation and his discontent with the organization hurt his value and the team's leverage – but it was a problem.
The Spurs haven’t been bad enough in recent years to land high in the lottery and potentially draft a new franchise player. As a result, the club that went from David Robinson to Tim Duncan to Leonard now lacks a cornerstone for its next phase.
Still, there’s plenty of promising young talent on the roster, including Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Keldon Johnson, Lonnie Walker, and Devin Vassell, so it’s not as if the cupboards are totally bare going forward. San Antonio still has one of the league’s better developmental programs, and as long as those youngsters continue to improve, it shouldn’t be much longer until the team is back in the postseason.
The Spurs’ Offseason Plan:
With the exception of the occasional major move – such as the Leonard trade in 2018 or the signing of LaMarcus Aldridge in 2015 – the Spurs can rarely be counted on for action-packed offseasons that feature a bunch of roster turnover. Their general preference is to identify guys they like and then to keep re-signing them, favoring continuity and development over constantly seeking out potential upgrades.
Having said that, if the Spurs do want to significantly turn over their roster, this would be the time to do it. Aldridge departed earlier this year, highly-paid veterans DeMar DeRozan, Rudy Gay, and Patty Mills are among the team’s five unrestricted free agents and the club currently has less than $57M in guaranteed salary on its books for 2021-22.
While the opportunity is there, don't expect the Spurs to renounce all their vets to create the cap room necessary to make a run for a top restricted free agent such as John Collins. They could surprise, but it just doesn’t feel like their M.O.
There are rumors that DeRozan may look to sign elsewhere, however. In that case, perhaps the Spurs focus on re-signing Mills and Gay. If the team can bring back that duo for a combined 2021-22 cap hit of about $25-30M, it would still leave enough room to make a play at a second- or third-tier free agent or two.
Lauri Markkanen would be an intriguing target as a reclamation project, since the former lottery pick has seen his value dip a little in Chicago. Josh Hart and Bruce Brown also have a feel as being Spurs-type players.
However, all of those guys are restricted free agents, so San Antonio would either have to be aggressive with an offer sheet, work out a sign-and-trade, or hope that the player’s current team is only lukewarm on bringing him back. That may be the case with Markkanen and the Bulls, but the Pelicans and Nets will likely prioritize Hart and Brown, respectively.
Kelly Olynyk, Otto Porter, JaMychal Green, and Kelly Oubre are among the unrestricted free agents one could envision as fits for the Spurs. Justise Winslow might also be an intriguing target if the Grizzlies don’t pick up his $13M option.
Of course, the big question looming over the Spurs is how much longer Gregg Popovich will patrol the team’s sidelines. A year or two ago, there was speculation that the NBA’s longest-tenured head coach would retire after coaching Team USA at the 2020 Olympics. The Tokyo games have since been pushed back a year and there’s still no indication that Popovich plans to call it career once they conclude. But he’s 72 years old, so it’s hard to imagine his run as the Spurs’ coach will last too much longer.
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4M cap for 2021-22.
Guaranteed Salary
Player Options
Team Options
Non-Guaranteed Salary
Restricted Free Agents
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
Extension-Eligible Players
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
DeMar DeRozan ($39,344,970): Bird rights 4
Offseason Cap Outlook
Taking into account the cap hold for their lottery pick, the Spurs have about $61M committed to nine roster spots, putting them in position to open up a serious chunk of cap room. However, they also have nearly double that amount in options, non-guaranteed salary, and free agent cap holds, meaning they could very well operate as an over-the-cap team to start the offseason.
The Spurs’ decision on DeRozan may dictate whether or not they dip below the cap. If he re-signs at a salary close to this season’s $27.7M figure, staying over the cap probably makes sense, but if he walks for nothing, the club might as well take advantage of its financial flexibility.
Cap Exceptions Available
Footnotes
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.
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