A way-too-early look at 2020 NBA lottery contenders

CHARLOTTE HORNETS

The Hornets have refused to outright tank since their disastrous 2011-12 season, when they went 7-59, the worst winning percentage in NBA history. That’s led to a parade of late-lottery picks who haven’t worked out in Charlotte: Noah Vonleh and Frank Kaminsky are already gone, and Malk Monk has done little in two years. 

Now the Hornets have lost their leading scorers, Kemba Walker and Jeremy Lamb, and replaced them with Rozier and his nine points per game, for which he’ll make nearly $20 million this season. That is par for the course in Charlotte, since Nic Batum is making $25.5 million after scoring 9.3 points per game. The projected starting lineup combined to average 46 points last season -- Wilt Chamberlain exceeded that by himself one year.  

The rest of Charlotte’s roster is either young and unproven, or old and injury-prone. It’s even worse considering “The Big Handsome,” Cody Zeller, will miss his usual 20-25 games. Rookie P.J. Washington must learn to shoot, backup Michael-Kidd Gilchrist never learned, and Bismack Biyombo made exactly three shots outside the paint last season. There are underground bomb shelters that have a higher ceiling than the Hornets’ offense.

But we like them best because it’s so easy for them to tank. Some teams must bench their best players to lose games. The Hornets don’t have best players, so they can just keep playing their normal guys and lose. In fact, the one thing that might derail them is trading Kidd-Gilchrist or Marvin Williams, because the replacements at least have an outside chance of succeeding while the track record of these veterans says no way in hell.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

Once again, the free-agent departure of LeBron James left the Cavaliers in disarray. They averaged 24 wins per year in the four years he spent in Miami, eerily similar to the 27 wins per year in the four years before he arrived in 2003. That’s a good estimate for their range of wins in 2019-20. Collin Sexton and Darius Garland will get plenty of playing time, and while they could turn into great players, the Cavs aren’t stopping anyone with two starting guards shorter than 6-foot-2 who aren’t old enough to legally drink.

Overall, the Cavs’ talent isn’t terrible. In John Henson, Jordan Clarkson and Tristan Thompson, they have overpaid veterans who can still contribute to winning. Their deals expire after the season, as do the deals of Brandon Knight and Matthew Dellavedova, which is why it’s imperative that the Cavaliers tank for a high pick now.

After the season, $67 million comes off the Cavaliers' salary cap, giving them space to add a max salary and presumably stop sucking quite as badly. Expect Thompson and Kevin Love to get shut down early this season with real or imagined injuries, Jordan Clarkson shooting on every possession after the All-Star break, and Delly chugging a whole pot of coffee at halftime of every game, ensuring they lose as much as possible down the stretch. Otherwise, their best bet might be waiting for LeBron to come back in 2022 -– maybe they can draft his son Bronny, too. 

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Another team waiting for big veteran salaries to expire is the Grizzlies, who, like the Cavs, rented out their cap space to get draft picks, with more than $40 million coming off the books after this season. But they’re in a difficult position as tankers, because the Boston Celtics get their first-round pick if it’s worse than 1-6. The only way to guarantee they keep their pick is to be the absolute worst team in the league, something that’s probably impossible for a team that still has Jonas Valanciunas, Jaren Jackson, Jr., No. 2 pick Ja Morant, and a few months of Andre Iguodala. It’s more likely that Memphis aims for being the fourth-worst team, which gives them an 81% chance of retaining the pick. Them’s good tanking odds! 

PHOENIX SUNS

The Phoenix Suns have missed the playoffs for nine straight seasons, and it’s a near-lock that they’ll make it a full decade of misery.

Once again, Phoenix has brought in a quality veteran to help pull the team out of its morass. This season it’s Ricky Rubio. Last season it was Trevor Ariza. In 2016 it was Jared Dudley, and in 2015, it was Tyson Chandler. But it’s hard for any player to overcome the culture of losing established in Phoenix. They’re the polar opposite of the New England Patriots, whose winning culture is so strong that they can plug in new players, and they’ll also start winning.

In Phoenix, you can put otherwise competent players into a Suns uniform and they’ll stop getting back on defense and forget how to shoot. There’s no Bizarro Belichick -– they’re on their seventh head coach in seven years -– so owner Robert Sarver should get credit for creating this culture.

As for the young players, top pick DeAndre Ayton should be better in his second year, Rubio will end Phoenix’s odd multi-year experiment of playing without a point guard, and Devin Booker should continue to put up plenty of points as long as there’s no double-teaming.

As for the not-so-young players, Phoenix curiously used a lottery pick on Cameron Johnson, who’s actually six months older than Booker, who’s going into his fifth NBA season. Mikal Bridges should shoot better from three, and the Suns are probably better off having dumped music lover Josh Jackson. But they’re still going to be really bad. They might not be intentionally tanking, but this is a veteran team that knows how to lose, and that’s always a contender for the No. 1 pick. 

NEW YORK KNICKS

The Knicks went into the summer thinking they’d get Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, and left with four power forwards and Elfrid Payton. The team doesn’t make any sense, but they should still be better in 2019-20. A team of decent NBA players who play the same position is still an improvement over a team with no competent NBA players at all. 

It’s possible that the intimidating presence of Marcus Morris and Taj Gibson will instill discipline in Kevin Knox and RJ Barrett, and owner James Dolan probably won’t come out with a song about Jeffrey Epstein until the spring. The Knicks will be bad, but not bad enough to get the No. 1 pick, because that’s the best way to keep disappointing their fans. 

WASHINGTON WIZARDS

When the Washington Wizards trade Bradley Beal, the team is going directly into the tank. They know the crash is coming, having offloaded any veterans making money earlier in the year, aside from the injured John Wall and his cement shoes of a contract. But until Beal gets hurt or traded, he’s just too good for the elite tanking they’ll need for a top pick.

DETROIT PISTONS

Finally, there’s always a “bright horse” candidate for a high pick -- that is, an aspiring playoff contender that crashes, like last season's Wizards or any number of recent Dallas Mavericks teams. This season it could be the Pistons, a team built around Blake Griffin. 

Griffin had his healthiest regular season in years in 2018-19, playing 75 games, averaging 24.5 points, and making the All-NBA team. Then he got hurt, played just 58 minutes as the Pistons got swept in the playoffs, and had arthroscopic surgery after the season. Blake’s left leg has had more injuries than Andrew Luck’s entire body: He’s broken, bruised, strained and torn his left knee, and had it scoped this spring. Griffin has also suffered a torn quadriceps and hamstring, and he’s had surgery on his right knee and a season-ending right ankle bruise. 

If Blake misses significant time, the Pistons are not only going to the lottery, they’re shooting for their first No. 1 pick in 50 years (Bob Lanier in 1970).