
The Houston Rockets play the San Antonio Spurs for the final time this regular season on Sunday night. The two teams are second (Spurs) and third (Rockets) in the Western Conference standings. The last time they met, a Spurs adjustment turned young Rockets star Amen Thompson into a major offensive liability.
Do they have a counter in place this time around?
The Rockets and Spurs last played one another in late January.
In that game, San Antonio employed a second-half strategy of defending Houston’s Thompson with their own (even more pronounced) genetic anomaly, Victor Wembanyama. The 6-foot-7 Rockets forward (occasionally theoretical point guard) started the game strong, shooting 5-of-7 from the field in the first half. In the second, when Wembanyama took the assignment, Thompson went 6 for 16. What was worse was that Thompson’s lack of aggression from the perimeter allowed Wembanyama to play free safety. The 7-foot-5 Frenchman had 4 blocks in the second half alone.
Houston had over a month to try to come up with a solution to the matchup. Along with the sometimes efficiency-deprived Rockets All-Star Alperen Sengun, Thompson just had an excellent offensive outing (11-of-12 from the field ) versus the Portland Trail Blazers. Will he be able to carry some confidence from that into his worst matchup?
If Thompson is feeling really bold, he could try to attack the match-up one-on-one. As absurdly mobile as Wembanyama is, Thompson is still undeniably faster. The trouble with Thompson deploying his usual driving and cutting game is that Wembanyama’s radius around the rim is obscenely oppressive (after he’s already figured out to stop selling out for shot contests).
The Rockets could try to involve Thompson in screening actions with shooters to drag Wembanyama away from the paint. Kevin Durant and Reed Sheppard would both be suitable for that assignment. First, though, Houston should just see whether Thompson can make any 3-pointers. Last time, the Spurs were leaving Thompson wide open on the perimeter. If they do so again, those 3s would effectively be practice shots.
Of course, Thompson shoots 18.7% on 1.3 “wide open” 3-point attempts per game. However, a lot of Thompson’s 3-point issues come from hesitation. He knows it’s not the thing he’s best at, which is why he’s always looking for opportunities to get closer to the rim or hit an open teammate. The indecision affects his confidence and his flow. It’s possible that if he knows he’s going to have to take a lot of them going into a game, he might perform a little better.
There is another approach Houston could take, but the wisdom of it is questionable. The Rockets could try to hold onto their cards until the playoffs. The Spurs are a special case because of Wembanyama. Most teams don’t have bigs with his kind of lateral quickness and shot-blocking impact. In fact, no other team does.
However, any playoff team will want to try to exploit Thompson’s lack of shooting, somehow. Therefore, Houston may wish to keep their outplay a secret for a surprise Game 1 bamboozle. 6.5 games behind San Antonio, it’s not as if they have a very realistic chance of catching them in the standings at this point anyway.
There are several issues with that, though. For one, the Rockets’ adjustment might not work. It would be nice to test it in the regular season and find out. Additionally, while other teams may attempt a loosely similar strategy, there really is no other player in the league like Wembanyama. Houston might very well never play the Spurs this postseason. So if they have a counter, they should use it while they can.
Finally, not only are the Rockets unlikely to overtake San Antonio in the Western Conference standings, they aren’t secure in their own position. They have only one fewer win than the third-place Minnesota Timberwolves in the four-spot, and just two more losses than the fifth-place Denver Nuggets and sixth-place Los Angeles Lakers. Ultimately, Houston needs every win they can get. And they’ll need every edge they can get to beat a red-hot Spurs team (9-1 in their last 10).
It’s not all on Thompson to get Houston the win, but it’ll be all eyes on Thompson to see just how well he responds.
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