Eight big predictions for the 2016 NBA Draft

For better or worse, tonight could be the night that determines the course of your favorite NBA team's future for the next decade. It’s draft night in the NBA, and with that comes a great deal of excitement and uncertainty. For the Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Lakers, who own the first and second overall picks respectively, it appears both franchises are in positions to grab future All-Stars in Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram.

Past the first two picks, however, it’s hard to gauge who else in this draft is going to become a great NBA player. Jamal Murray, Kris Dunn and Dragan Bender could all turn out to be All-Stars but could just as easily go bust. Despite the sense of unpredictability that lies beyond the second overall pick, we’re going to make some sense of it. Here are eight predictions for tonight’s NBA Draft.

1) The Celtics trade the third overall pick

If there’s one thing you can be just about 100 percent sure of, it’s that the Boston Celtics will do everything they can to trade their third overall pick. The pick is in no-man's land as it sits just outside of Simmons and Ingram, and the Celtics are no longer looking to get younger. Boston has been looking to add a legitimate star to its roster for quite some time now, and the third overall pick is the best asset to acquire such a player.

Unfortunately for Celtics general manager Danny Ainge, there doesn’t appear to be a star out there to be had for the third pick. The Kings are doing everything they can to hold on to DeMarcus Cousins, it’s too soon for the Cavs to trade Kevin Love and it’s going to take a far more grand offer for a team to pull Jimmy Butler away from the Bulls.

It's much more likely that the Celts will work out a deal with the 76ers for center Jahlil Okafor, or a team like the Minnesota Timberwolves will find a way to trade up to Boston’s spot. Regardless, however…

2) Kris Dunn is selected with the third pick

With just a few hours to go before the draft commences, the general consensus appears to be that Kris Dunn will be the third player taken. Besides the fact that most teams have him rated as the third best player in the draft, you can expect this to happen for several reasons.

First of all, if the Celtics do trade down, it will likely be with a team that covets Dunn. The 76ers, Timberwolves, Pelicans and Kings are all teams that would love to have the draft rights to the Providence guard at the end of the night. The best way to accomplish such a task would be to make a deal with Boston.

Secondly, even if the Celtics don’t trade their pick, there’s still a great chance they’ll select Dunn. Taking Dunn third overall and holding out for a better offer isn’t a poor strategy by any means. He’s a young player multiple teams are after, and the Celtics hold his fate.

3) Buddy Hield will fall out of the top five

Sorry, college basketball fans, but the NBA is a different kind of monster than what you see year after year in March Madness. Yes, Buddy Hield is a lights-out shooter, and for that reason alone he’ll be a quality NBA player. The real question is what else can he do?

Hield stands at just six-feet-three-inches, not great size for a shooting guard. His athleticism can make up for some of this, but in the NBA, size matters. Also, Hield never stood out during his time at Oklahoma for his defense. Combine this with the fact that he isn’t a natural passer, and it’s hard to envision what Buddy Hield will be able to do in the NBA other than score. It’s a good skill to have, but there are other important areas of the game of basketball where Hield is lacking. And for that, he’ll fall out of the top five.

4) Dragan Bender is the first international player taken

He’s not the next Kristaps Porzings, but for almost a year now, Dragan Bender of Croatia has been the consensus top international prospect. He could theoretically go as high as third to Boston, but it’s much more likely that the 18-year-old power forward will fall somewhere in the four to seven range, with the Suns and Nuggets looking like natural fits. On a night filled with uncertainty, you can be assured that Dragan Bender will be the first international prospect taken.

5) Jaylen Brown falls into the Kings’ lap

Swingman Jaylen Brown has the size, athleticism and physicality teams look for in a high-end wing player. However, from picks four through seven, Brown just isn’t a fit for any of the teams drafting. So expect the Cal-Berkeley product to fall squarely into the Sacramento Kings’ lap at the eight spot. The Kings need stronger play along the perimeter, in particular on defense, and Jaylen Brown is the man to provide such services.

6) Skal Labissiere is the first center taken

Although Utah center Jakob Poeltl looks like a surefire NBA starter, he doesn’t have the upside that Kentucky center Skal Labissiere has. A year ago, many scouts pegged Labissiere as a top three pick for the 2016 Draft, but a dismal freshman season at Kentucky saw the seven-footer's stock drop.

Labissiere is a project but one who could be worth the time and patience. If the Bucks at 10th overall or the Magic at 11th are interested in taking a player with supreme upside on the defensive side of the floor, nabbing Labissiere should be their top priority.

7) Thon Maker is not taken in the first round

YouTube sensation Thon Maker was supposed to be a freshman in college in the fall. However, the South Sudan-born player lobbied the NBA for eligibility in the 2016 NBA Draft, which he was granted in April. Maker, the rare seven-footer who can handle the basketball, was thought to be a potential lottery pick, but his stock has dropped dramatically over the past week for one major reason: his age.

Maker is documented as being 19 years old, but reports have been circling that many NBA teams believe he is actually as old as 23. The gap between the ages of 19 and 23 eliminates a tremendous amount of room for a player to grow. This red flag will be too much for NBA teams to ignore. It would be very surprising if an NBA team was a willing to take the chance of using a first-round pick, which comes with a guaranteed contract, on Maker.

8) Diamond Stone sneaks into the first round

Similar to Skal Labissiere, center Diamond Stone was one of the most sought-after basketball prospects in the nation coming out of high school. However, a lukewarm year at Maryland and character concerns have caused a player with lottery-level talent to find himself on the outside looking in on the first round.

Still, Stone has innate athletic and basketball abilities that no coach can ever teach. Some team will find taking a chance on him at the end of the first round is worth the risk.